# Süper Lig Winner

> Galatasaray leads at 96%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sper-lig-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.946Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Leader: Galatasaray at 96%
- Runner-up: Fenerbahçe at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $290

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 96¢ | −2pp | $55 | polymarket | /markets/sper-lig-winner-galatasaray-polymarket-0x10a2b6018440a48d06fba6db7fda8c9cd9e372690d92f449f22e5c8e23df72c2 |
| Fenerbahçe | 3¢ | −1pp | $235 | polymarket | /markets/sper-lig-winner-fenerbahe-polymarket-0x251f1431c02356f7539f668cde61b9788faff667cd19223172ce38a8e8c03cc5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Galatasaray | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 78 | 12 |
| 2026-04-25 | 80 | 19 |
| 2026-05-02 | 98 | 3 |
| 2026-05-06 | 96 | 2 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 3 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 44% probability represents the market's assessment that a specific Turkish Süper Lig club will win the 2026 championship. The probability reflects expectations about that team's remaining fixtures, roster strength, and competition from rivals. The 6-percentage-point gap between venues suggests differing assessments of either team quality or remaining schedule difficulty. The main driver of movement would be mid-season performance data—wins and losses accumulating through the spring and early summer—which would clarify which teams remain competitive. The championship conclusion in May or June 2026 will ultimately resolve this uncertainty. Until then, injuries to key players, transfer activity before any winter window, and head-to-head results between top contenders will shape how traders reassess the probability.

### Key factors

- Current standings and points differential versus second-place competitors as of early May 2026
- Number of remaining league matches and goal differential trends over the past 10 matches
- Injury status of the team's primary offensive or defensive contributors
- Historical performance in championship run-ins (May-June) for this specific club over prior seasons
- Polymarket's higher estimate (45% vs 39%) suggests different weighting of fixture difficulty or squad depth assessment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sper-lig-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sper-lig-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.