# Will sports prediction markets be banned?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 19 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sports-betting-ban
Updated: 2026-06-25T06:41:50.369Z
Category: legislation
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 25 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 12% — 22pp spread
- 24h volume: $1.1M

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 4¢ | +1pp | $943K | polymarket | /markets/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-polymarket-0x139ba0e7f931f09466c0fb27fc8ddb5e77ce9d1e2bdc953a5f22765bf779452f |
| Sports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling? | 12¢ | — | $43K | polymarket | /markets/sports-prediction-markets-taxed-as-gambling-polymarket-0x3a7fe8fa58bde67a753d46b5b8210a53b9fbc7a6c424b41a9b00015588c3e2a3 |
| ICE | 1¢ | +1pp | $33K | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0x30947797ba4407fdb989c651dc64a38a73ac03650370ef7e023fe3211e7e107d |
| Aristotle | 35¢ | −1pp | $22K | polymarket | /markets/which-dcms-self-certify-sports-event-contracts-by-polymarket-0xd5d09b7ac4a4ada87f082bb75fa8f96970d4a6c1d21a591e0615bf3eb71a56a2 |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? | 17¢ | ±0 | $17K | polymarket | /markets/law-banning-sports-prediction-markets-enacted-in-2-polymarket-0x3ef18432c0e44e0a28b75d0950aa2d187a8f6e9aff6d5b56147693b6ddc235b4 |
| Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 34¢ | −1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-max-verstappen-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-ver |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 61¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-lewis-hamilton-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-ham |
| Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 60¢ | −1pp | $527 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-russell-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-rus |
| Will Oscar Piastri finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 17¢ | — | $447 | kalshi | /markets/will-oscar-piastri-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-a-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-pia |
| Will Lando Norris finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 29¢ | −1pp | $389 | kalshi | /markets/will-lando-norris-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-at-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-nor |
| Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 63¢ | +1pp | $328 | kalshi | /markets/will-lewis-hamilton-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-ham |
| Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 40¢ | +1pp | $264 | kalshi | /markets/will-max-verstappen-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-ver |
| Will Nico Hulkenberg finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 Austrian Grand Prix? | 5¢ | — | $161 | kalshi | /markets/will-nico-hulkenberg-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-autgp26-hul |
| Will Charles Leclerc finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 52¢ | −1pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-charles-leclerc-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-lec |
| Will Pierre Gasly finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 3¢ | — | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-pierre-gasly-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-at-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-gas |
| Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 74¢ | +48pp | $47 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrea-kimi-antonelli-finish-top-3-in-the-mai-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-ant |
| Will Isack Hadjar finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 3¢ | — | $42 | kalshi | /markets/will-isack-hadjar-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-at-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-had |
| Will Valtteri Bottas finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 4¢ | — | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-valtteri-bottas-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-bot |
| Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 68¢ | +38pp | $18 | kalshi | /markets/will-george-russell-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-rus |
| Will Arvid Lindblad finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? | 4¢ | — | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-arvid-lindblad-finish-top-3-in-the-main-race-kalshi-kxf1racepodium-brigp26-lin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 37 |
| 2026-06-12 | 31 |
| 2026-06-18 | 20 |
| 2026-06-25 | 45 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? +48pp 25→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Will George Russell finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? +38pp 25→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Will Charles Leclerc finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? +36pp 17→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Will Lewis Hamilton finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? +26pp 30→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Will Max Verstappen finish top 3 in the main race at the 2026 British Grand Prix? +8pp 23→31¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sports-betting-ban
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sports-betting-ban

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.