# Will FOX MLB

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 19 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sportsemmy
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:20:29.648Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-05-27

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby | 34¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-151st-kentucky-derby-win-the-47th-annual-spor-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-151 |
| Non-Championship Event?: NHL on ESPN | 36¢ | +10pp | $824 | kalshi | /markets/will-nhl-on-espn-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-a-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-nhlo |
| The 95th All-Star Game win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event?: FOX MLB: The 95th All-Star Game | 4¢ | −6pp | $604 | kalshi | /markets/will-fox-mlb-the-95th-all-star-game-win-the-47th-a-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-fox |
| Non-Championship Event?: Monsters Funday Football | 4¢ | −6pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-monsters-funday-football-win-the-47th-annual-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-mon |
| Non-Championship Event?: NHL in ASL | 4¢ | −6pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-nhl-in-asl-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssnce-nhl |
| Sunday Night Football | 54¢ | — | $176 | kalshi | /markets/will-sunday-night-football-win-the-47th-annual-spo-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olss-sun |
| Monday Night Football | 11¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-monday-night-football-win-the-47th-annual-spo-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olss-mon |
| Championship Event?: NBA Finals | 19¢ | — | $86 | kalshi | /markets/will-nba-finals-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-aw-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssce-nba |
| League of Legends Worlds 2025 Final | 37¢ | −3pp | $62 | kalshi | /markets/will-league-of-legends-worlds-2025-final-win-the-4-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26out-lea |
| Allen Iv3rson | 16¢ | — | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-allen-iv3rson-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osdse-all |
| Daily?: The Pat McAfee Show | 10¢ | — | $21 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-pat-mcafee-show-win-the-47th-annual-sport-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osssd-pat |
| Daily?: SportsCenter | 53¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-sportscenter-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osssd-spo |
| Drive to Survive win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Sports Documentary Series: Serialized?: Formula 1: Drive to Survive | 29¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-formula-1-drive-to-survive-win-the-47th-annua-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osdser-for |
| World Series win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Championship Event?: FOX MLB: World Series | 49¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-fox-mlb-world-series-win-the-47th-annual-spor-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26olssce-fox |
| Daily?: NFL LIVE | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nfl-live-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-awar-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osssd-nfl |
| Daily?: NBA Today | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nba-today-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-awa-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osssd-nba |
| Hosted?: NFL Films Presents | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nfl-films-presents-win-the-47th-annual-sports-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26oeseh-nfl |
| NFL Game Day All Access | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nfl-game-day-all-access-win-the-47th-annual-s-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26oesec-nfl |
| Alex vs. ARod | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alex-vs-arod-win-the-47th-annual-sports-emmy-kalshi-kxsportsemmy-26osdse-ale |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 23 |
| 2026-05-01 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 26 |
| 2026-05-03 | 20 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Non-Championship Event?: NHL on ESPN −26pp 54→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby +14pp 10→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Non-Championship Event?: NHL on ESPN +10pp 28→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Non-Championship Event?: 151st Kentucky Derby +6pp 24→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · The 95th All-Star Game win the 47th Annual Sports Emmy Awards for Outstanding Live Sports Special: Non-Championship Event?: FOX MLB: The 95th All-Star Game −6pp 10→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether FOX's broadcast of the 95th MLB All-Star Game will win a Sports Emmy Award in the Outstanding Live Sports Special category for non-championship events. The current 19% probability reflects a competitive field where many networks produce high-quality sports broadcasts annually, making any single program's Emmy chances modest. The probability is driven primarily by the perceived quality and viewership of the specific All-Star Game broadcast compared to other eligible productions that year, and by historical Emmy voting patterns in this category. The resolution will occur when the Sports Emmy Awards are announced in 2026, which will definitively determine whether this broadcast receives the award. Factors affecting the outcome include production quality, viewership metrics, competing broadcasts, voting academy preferences, and any technical or on-air incidents that might influence Emmy voters' perception of the broadcast.

### Key factors

- Historical Emmy win rates for MLB All-Star Game broadcasts show infrequent wins in this specific category, establishing a baseline below 50%
- The market faces direct competition from other major sports broadcasts in the same category throughout the calendar year
- Viewership and production quality metrics from the actual All-Star Game broadcast will influence voting outcomes
- Emmy voting typically weighs production values, innovation, and cultural impact alongside pure ratings performance
- The specific Emmy category for non-championship events receives numerous eligible submissions, diluting any single entry's relative advantage

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sportsemmy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sportsemmy

## License

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