# When will Spotify release 2026 Wrapped

> Before Dec 5, 2026 leads at 82%, runner-up 79% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spotifywrappedrelease
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.633Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-05

## Headline

- Leader: Before Dec 5, 2026 at 82%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 4, 2026 at 79%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Dec 5, 2026 | 82¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-dec-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-dec05 |
| Before Dec 4, 2026 | 79¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-dec-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-dec04 |
| Before Dec 3, 2026 | 70¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-dec-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-dec03 |
| Before Dec 2, 2026 | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-dec-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-dec02 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 8¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-dec-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-dec01 |
| Before Nov 30, 2026 | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-nov-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-nov30 |
| Before Nov 29, 2026 | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/when-will-spotify-release-2026-wrapped-before-nov-kalshi-kxspotifywrappedrelease-26-nov29 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | 70 |
| 2026-04-29 | 70 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Spotify will release its 2026 Wrapped feature by December 5, 2026. Historically, Spotify releases Wrapped in early November, making a December release date plausible but somewhat later than the typical pattern. The current 82% assessment suggests traders view a December release as likely but not certain, possibly reflecting uncertainty about whether Spotify might shift its timing or consolidate with other year-end features. The main resolution driver is Spotify's actual announcement date for 2026 Wrapped, which typically occurs in late October or early November. Factors that could shift this probability include changes to Spotify's product roadmap, integration with new features, or delays in data processing pipelines.

### Key factors

- Spotify's historical Wrapped release pattern: consistently deployed in early-to-mid November for the past five years
- Current market price reflects December 5 specifically; earlier November releases would favor alternative contracts and lower this probability
- Seven separate outcome contracts exist, suggesting material disagreement among traders about which specific date is most likely
- Trading volume and contract spreads ($623–$1,055 in 24h volume) indicate active but modest participation, suggesting moderate confidence rather than consensus
- The runner-up contract at 79% represents a competing date hypothesis; the 3-point gap suggests relatively tight uncertainty about exact release timing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/spotifywrappedrelease
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=spotifywrappedrelease

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.