# Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314M

> Above 308M leads at 76%, runner-up 64% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sprlvl
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:50.597Z
Category: general · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-08

## Headline

- Leader: Above 308M at 76%
- Runner-up: Above 310M at 64%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 308M | 76¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t308 |
| Above 310M | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t310 |
| Above 312M | 55¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t312 |
| Above 314M | 46¢ | +1pp | $323 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t314 |
| Above 316M | 19¢ | +1pp | $319 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t316 |
| Above 318M | 7¢ | −7pp | $584 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t318 |
| Above 320M | 7¢ | −4pp | $477 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t320 |
| Above 322M | 6¢ | −4pp | $620 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-level-for-the-kalshi-kxsprlvl-26jul15-t322 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 314M | Above 316M | Above 318M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 32 | 26 | 21 |
| 2026-07-09 | 33 | 27 | 14 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Above 318M −7pp 21→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 322M −4pp 9→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Above 320M −4pp 10→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects traders' assessment of whether the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold at least 314 million barrels for the week ending July 3, 2026. At 82% probability, traders view this level as likely. The SPR level fluctuates based on crude oil purchase and sale decisions by the Department of Energy, influenced by oil prices, domestic production needs, and Congressional budget actions. The key driver is whether DOE will continue recent net purchases or shift toward sales or drawdowns. Resolution depends on the official SPR data release from the Energy Information Administration, typically published weekly on Wednesdays, which provides the definitive week-ending inventory figure. Contract pricing across the range (314M to 322M) suggests traders expect reserves somewhere in the 314-318M barrel range, with diminishing confidence at higher levels.

### Key factors

- Recent SPR net purchase or sale activity and DOE's stated inventory management plans for Q3 2026
- Oil market prices and whether DOE views current price levels as appropriate for adding to or drawing down reserves
- Congressional actions or budget provisions affecting SPR fill or sale authorities during 2026
- The official EIA weekly petroleum status report release date and historical volatility in reported SPR figures
- Domestic crude oil production levels and refinery demand, which indirectly signal whether strategic reserves are being drawn for market supply

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sprlvl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sprlvl
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/oil

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