# St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 3 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes-more-markets
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.026Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $859

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 19¢ | +1pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-j-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sj |
| St. Louis | 4¢ | −2pp | $274 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-be-the-2026-nl-central-division-winn-kalshi-kxmlbnlcent-26-stl |
| San Jose | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-cup-san-jose-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-sj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 12 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 |
| 2026-06-19 | 15 |
| 2026-06-26 | 11 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 7% probability reflects the likelihood of a specific outcome between St. Louis City SC and San Jose Earthquakes in an MLS-related context. The low probability suggests market participants view this scenario as unlikely given current circumstances. The primary drivers appear to be team performance metrics and league standings rather than individual player transfers, as evidenced by the contract mix emphasizing divisional and conference outcomes. The cross-venue gap of 3 percentage points indicates some disagreement between Kalshi and Polymarket participants about baseline probability. The most relevant upcoming resolution events would be the remainder of the 2026 MLS regular season and playoff structure, which determine competitive positioning and advancement. Notably, several contracts show minimal trading volume, suggesting lower conviction or liquidity around this particular market.

### Key factors

- San Jose's current MLS Cup odds (4¢) directly price their championship pathway; significant improvements in their regular season record would increase related contract values
- St. Louis City's divisional winner contract (3¢) underprices them relative to 7% aggregate, suggesting either weak recent performance or market skepticism about their 2026 competitiveness
- Low trading volume on the Cristiano Ronaldo contract ($0) indicates minimal market confidence in the transfer scenario, despite the 10¢ Polymarket price representing the highest individual contract probability
- The 3-percentage-point gap between venues may reflect different participant bases or information sets; Polymarket's higher assessment warrants monitoring for new data or statements affecting either team
- Most contracts lack 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent information flow and the market may move substantially on roster changes, injury updates, or official league announcements

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes-more-markets

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