# St. Louis City SC vs. San Jose Earthquakes

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 9% across 3 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:51.251Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-08

## Headline

- Probability: 9% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $859

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 19¢ | +1pp | $585 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-j-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sj |
| St. Louis | 4¢ | −2pp | $274 | kalshi | /markets/will-st-louis-be-the-2026-nl-central-division-winn-kalshi-kxmlbnlcent-26-stl |
| San Jose | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-cup-san-jose-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-sj |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 12 |
| 2026-06-12 | 6 |
| 2026-06-19 | 15 |
| 2026-06-26 | 11 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 9% probability represents the aggregate market expectation that San Jose Earthquakes will defeat St. Louis City SC in an upcoming match. The low probability reflects San Jose's recent performance relative to St. Louis, along with any relevant head-to-head history or current standings. Market participants are pricing in St. Louis as the favored outcome. The probability would shift based on team roster changes, injury reports, or public odds from major sportsbooks closer to match day. The match result will provide full resolution, with the exact date determining when this uncertainty fully clears. Traders monitoring MLS standings, recent form, and Vegas spreads would have primary signals for directional moves before kickoff.

### Key factors

- San Jose's MLS season win-loss record and current playoff position relative to St. Louis City SC
- Head-to-head historical performance between the two teams and any relevant tactical or personnel matchups
- Injury status and lineup availability for key players on both sides ahead of the scheduled match
- Las Vegas sportsbook moneyline odds and implied win probability for San Jose, as external reference point
- Distance and travel factors, if applicable, plus home/away performance splits for both teams this season

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=st-louis-city-sc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes

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