# Stablecoins depeg before 2027 — USD1

> USDTb leads at 28%, runner-up 20% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stablecoins-depeg
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.306Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: USDTb at 28%
- Runner-up: USDS at 20%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDTb | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usdtb-polymarket-0xfa12351515ae97905653b1dd934cd06c1180c2781236f7395be193e93094aeaa |
| USDS | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usds-polymarket-0x98bfadd5217608f81f1feab2cb88e2b97a29159bf264b547b4b699d1c4dfa9c8 |
| GHO | 20¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-gho-polymarket-0x47c7a3fea3e1a787a43767257f8dce05eb2d476bf92afdc213666b90a397fac1 |
| DAI | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-dai-polymarket-0xb7a2f1cf9525bd9c3acea5cb4f977c85d1dec2f73cf6a5b336ec8a6b73260291 |
| USD0 | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usd0-polymarket-0x923a8c8da1da533988f7ac982d7634a22b044c102ec1228f370db30c1bd1b095 |
| USD1 | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usd1-polymarket-0x26bd52c930651a76b3ba1bdd973f96695f792128d4837430702842d8ab77b18e |
| USDE | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usde-polymarket-0xf81d31cfc93941e171b905424c37fb83fcfeb3b39661063536ab14d0b356d45a |
| PYUSD | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-pyusd-polymarket-0x3fb8710998b50c0950f39e7383ca53fdfe93ce7abce8039016edc04740c191cd |
| USDC | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/stablecoins-depeg-before-2027-usdc-polymarket-0x37721f9651e1861ba49d70aee9199a7b285daeb62bdee0ddb4c6969344dc98fb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | USDTb | USDS | GHO |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 24 | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-10 | 26 | 15 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 28 | 17 | 14 |
| 2026-05-02 | 30 | 21 | 18 |
| 2026-05-08 | 26 | 18 | 19 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · USD0 −20pp 37→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · PYUSD −6pp 14→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · USDTb −6pp 32→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · USD0 +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · USDS +3pp 18→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market asks whether any major USD stablecoins will break their $1 peg at any point before the end of 2026. The 35% probability reflects modest but meaningful concern about stablecoin stability over the next seven months. Movement in this probability hinges on two main forces: macroeconomic stress (banking instability, market crashes, or credit events that could trigger redemption runs) and regulatory action (new rules or enforcement that destabilize current backing mechanisms). The biggest near-term catalyst is any systemic financial shock or major stablecoin issuer regulatory action, though no single scheduled event determines the outcome. Current pricing suggests traders view depeg risk as below even odds but material enough to warrant hedging, particularly given the volatility inherent in crypto markets and potential for unexpected financial stress.

### Key factors

- Stablecoin total market cap and redemption pressure during market downturns; historical depegs (e.g., USDC in March 2023) demonstrate vulnerability under stress
- Regulatory environment changes affecting collateral requirements, reserve audits, or issuer licensing status before end-2026
- Banking system stability and credit market conditions; financial stress events have historically triggered stablecoin runs and temporary depegs
- Quality and transparency of underlying reserves backing major stablecoins; actual asset composition vs. claimed backing
- Competitive dynamics and market concentration; dominance of USDT, USDC, and USDP means depeg of any would likely count as market event

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stablecoins-depeg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=stablecoins-depeg

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.