# Starmer out by...

> December 31 leads at 67%, runner-up 41% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starmer-out
Updated: 2026-05-03T20:50:51.845Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 67%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 41%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 67¢ | +1pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/starmer-out-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2bde6486e7067f48ee21344d8b5c1af458732536eb4d080932c88c3a7c2d2126 |
| June 30 | 41¢ | −1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/starmer-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053 |
| May 15 | 9¢ | +1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/starmer-out-by-may-15-polymarket-0x575e86314d77231f25c16834b4f501221f215399a79fa6f5760b0a1eb7f1e5d3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 | May 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 51 | 27 | — |
| 2026-04-17 | 65 | 38 | 29 |
| 2026-04-19 | 63 | 37 | 23 |
| 2026-04-26 | 71 | 45 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 67 | 41 | 10 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · May 15 −12pp 21→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · May 15 +5pp 16→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · June 30 −5pp 45→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · June 30 +4pp 39→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · December 31 −3pp 71→68¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract assigns a 67% probability that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will leave office by December 31, 2026. The high probability reflects near-term political risks including potential health crises, internal Labour Party instability, or sudden electoral pressures that could force an early departure. The baseline expectation is that Starmer serves most of his current term, but the 2026 date window captures meaningful uncertainty around mid-term viability. Key drivers include polling trends showing Labour's position relative to the Conservative opposition, internal party cohesion following recent elections, and major fiscal or policy decisions that could trigger confidence votes. The most immediate catalyst would be any sudden announcement of resignation, serious illness, or significant erosion in parliamentary support over the coming months.

### Key factors

- Current polling averages and Labour's standing relative to the Conservative Party as of May 2026
- Starmer's health status and any publicly disclosed medical events
- Labour's internal party stability, including any backbench rebellions or cabinet resignations
- Occurrences of no-confidence votes or formal challenges to his leadership within the party or Parliament
- Major fiscal announcements or policy reversals that could trigger sudden political shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starmer-out
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=starmer-out

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.