# Will Rachel Reeves be out as Chancellor before July 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 7 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starmercableave
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:41.380Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat McFadden | 16¢ | +1pp | $430 | kalshi | /markets/will-pat-mcfadden-be-out-as-work-and-pensions-secr-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-pmcf |
| Ed Miliband | 29¢ | — | $415 | kalshi | /markets/will-ed-miliband-be-out-as-energy-secretary-before-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-emil |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 12¢ | +2pp | $385 | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-reynolds-be-out-as-chief-whip-before-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-jrey |
| Shabana Mahmood | 17¢ | ±0 | $375 | kalshi | /markets/will-shabana-mahmood-be-out-as-home-secretary-befo-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-smah |
| Rachel Reeves | 27¢ | +2pp | $332 | kalshi | /markets/will-rachel-reeves-be-out-as-chancellor-before-jul-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-rree |
| Wes Streeting | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wes-streeting-be-out-as-health-secretary-befo-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-wstr |
| David Lammy | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-lammy-be-out-as-deputy-pm-before-july-2-kalshi-kxstarmercableave-26may-dlam |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 19 |
| 2026-05-07 | 21 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starmercableave
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=starmercableave

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.