# How many SpaceX Starship launches in 2026?

> Leader at 60%, runner-up 19% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starship-launches-2026
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:41:43.732Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: — at 60%
- Runner-up: Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026? at 19%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026? | 87¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-sep-16-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26sep16 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026? | 85¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-aug-31-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26aug31 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026? | 77¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-aug-16-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26aug16 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026? | 57¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-jul-31-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26jul31 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 16, 2026? | 21¢ | −1pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-jul-16-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26jul16 |
| Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026? | 5¢ | ±0 | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-launch-another-starship-by-jun-30-2026-kalshi-kxspacexstarship-13-26jun30 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Sep 16, 2026? | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026? | Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 81 | 78 | 73 |
| 2026-06-01 | 83 | 77 | 70 |
| 2026-06-06 | 87 | 83 | 77 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 84 | 77 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | 85 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 16, 2026? +15pp 55→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026? +11pp 49→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-02 · Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jul 31, 2026? −7pp 60→53¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Aug 31, 2026? +5pp 72→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Will SpaceX launch another Starship by Jun 30, 2026? +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starship-launches-2026
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=starship-launches-2026
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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