# Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida before Aug 1, 2026

> Before 2027 leads at 40%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starshipfl-26jun
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:50.962Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before 2027 at 40%
- Runner-up: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2027 | 40¢ | −1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacexs-starship-launch-from-florida-this-yea-kalshi-kxstarshipfl-26jun-27jan01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacexs-starship-launch-from-florida-before-o-kalshi-kxstarshipfl-26jun-26oct01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before 2027 | Before Oct 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | 56 | 35 |
| 2026-06-15 | 38 | 6 |
| 2026-06-21 | 45 | 6 |
| 2026-06-22 | 40 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 43 | 4 |
| 2026-06-28 | 42 | — |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Before 2027 −5pp 45→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Before 2027 +3pp 40→43¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 38% probability reflects market belief that SpaceX's Starship will complete a launch from Florida within the next 14 months. The market is pricing in meaningful uncertainty despite SpaceX's track record and Florida facility readiness. Launch timing depends on regulatory approvals, technical readiness following recent test flights, and maintenance schedules. The next scheduled Starship test flight will provide direct evidence of progress and could shift probabilities materially. Near-term factors include FAA licensing decisions and whether SpaceX maintains its operational cadence through summer 2026.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's most recent Starship test flight results and any damage assessment affecting launch readiness
- FAA approval status and any new environmental or safety conditions imposed on Florida launches
- Technical modifications required after previous test flights and publicly announced timelines for completion
- Competition and congestion at Florida launch facilities affecting scheduling
- Regulatory or weather delays historically seen in Starship's launch history

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starshipfl-26jun
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=starshipfl-26jun
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.