# Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach space in 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 10 contracts — refreshed 58 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starshipspace
Updated: 2026-08-24T04:20:55.059Z
Category: technology
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $265

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 37¢ | −2pp | $145 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-5-starship-launches-reach-space-in-20-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26-5.0 |
| 4 | 51¢ | +1pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-4-starship-launches-reach-space-in-20-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26-4.0 |
| Above 5 | 5¢ | −24pp | $15 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-5-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-5 |
| 2 | 3¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-2-starship-launches-reach-space-in-20-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26-2.0 |
| 3 | 8¢ | +1pp | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-exactly-3-starship-launches-reach-space-in-20-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26-3.0 |
| Above 4 | 42¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-4-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-4 |
| Above 3 | 85¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-3-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-3 |
| Above 6 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-6-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-6 |
| Above 8 | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-8-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-8 |
| Above 9 | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-above-9-starship-launches-reach-space-in-2026-kalshi-kxstarshipspace-26b-9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 46 |
| 2026-08-10 | 90 |
| 2026-08-17 | 30 |
| 2026-08-24 | 16 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 4 −33pp 64→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 3 −27pp 90→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 5 −24pp 29→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · 4 +19pp 23→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · 5 −18pp 47→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 13% chance that SpaceX will conduct exactly 2 Starship launches reaching space during 2026. As of late May 2026, this specific outcome ranks below scenarios with 3, 4, or 5 launches—suggesting market participants expect either fewer launches (1 or below at 4%) or more frequent cadence through year-end. The timing matters because SpaceX has publicly targeted increased Starship flight rates in 2026, and actual launch records through mid-year provide evidence for whether the company is tracking toward 2, 3, or 4+ missions. Key unknowns include regulatory approval timelines for additional launch windows at Boca Chica, vehicle readiness and testing outcomes, and unplanned delays from mechanical issues or external factors. The final resolution depends on counting only launches where Starship reaches space—typically defined as crossing the Kármán line—by December 31, 2026, making completion dates of actual missions the primary determining factor.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's publicly stated 2026 Starship cadence targets and engineering timeline for vehicle turnaround between launches
- Historical launch frequency data: how many Starship missions successfully reached space in 2024 and 2025 establish baseline performance rates
- Regulatory approval status: FAA license modifications and launch window allocations at Starbase directly constrain available launch dates
- Vehicle readiness: unplanned maintenance, engineering holds, or component failures during integration testing can delay or cancel scheduled missions
- Actual launches executed year-to-date compared to the baseline expectation, determining whether the 2-launch outcome remains plausible by December 31

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/starshipspace
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=starshipspace

## License

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