# Will Jacoby Brissett be starting quarterback for Arizona in Week 1

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 34% across 13 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/startingqbweek1-w1
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:50.106Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-15

## Headline

- Probability: 34% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $464

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shedeur Sanders | 38¢ | +3pp | $334 | kalshi | /markets/will-shedeur-sanders-be-starting-quarterback-for-c-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-cle-ssan |
| Deshaun Watson | 60¢ | +2pp | $82 | kalshi | /markets/will-deshaun-watson-be-starting-quarterback-for-cl-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-cle-dwat |
| Dillon Gabriel | 4¢ | — | $35 | kalshi | /markets/will-dillon-gabriel-be-starting-quarterback-for-cl-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-cle-dgab |
| Fernando Mendoza | 8¢ | −10pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-fernando-mendoza-be-starting-quarterback-for-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-lv-fmen |
| Aaron Rodgers | 76¢ | +5pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-aaron-rodgers-be-starting-quarterback-for-pit-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-pit-arod |
| Geno Smith | 68¢ | +2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-geno-smith-be-starting-quarterback-for-new-yo-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep14-nyj-gsmi |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 69¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-tua-tagovailoa-be-starting-quarterback-for-at-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-atl-ttag |
| Carson Beck | 3¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-carson-beck-be-starting-quarterback-for-arizo-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-ari-cbec |
| Jacoby Brissett | 61¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jacoby-brissett-be-starting-quarterback-for-a-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-ari-jbri |
| Ty Simpson | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ty-simpson-be-starting-quarterback-for-arizon-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-ari-tsim |
| Michael Penix Jr. | 26¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-michael-penix-jr-be-starting-quarterback-for-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-atl-mpen |
| Anthony Richardson | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthony-richardson-be-starting-quarterback-fo-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-cle-aric |
| Kyler Murray | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyler-murray-be-starting-quarterback-for-clev-kalshi-kxstartingqbweek1-w1-26sep15-cle-kmur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 45 |
| 2026-06-12 | 57 |
| 2026-06-19 | 54 |
| 2026-06-26 | 58 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Shedeur Sanders −23pp 41→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Fernando Mendoza −12pp 20→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Aaron Rodgers −11pp 88→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Fernando Mendoza −10pp 18→8¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Jacoby Brissett +10pp 61→71¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 40% chance that Jacoby Brissett will be Arizona's starting quarterback when the 2026 NFL season opens in Week 1. The market reflects uncertainty about Arizona's quarterback depth chart heading into summer, with Brissett competing against other roster options or potential acquisitions. The probability would shift based on Arizona's draft decisions, free-agent moves, and any trade activity targeting veteran quarterbacks. Training camp performance and official roster announcements in August-September will be the primary catalysts that resolve this market, as teams typically finalize their opening-day starting lineups by late August. Similar QB starter markets show comparable volatility, with probability ranges typically tightening significantly once the NFL season approaches and teams make final personnel decisions.

### Key factors

- Arizona's draft strategy in April-May 2026, particularly whether they select a quarterback early or address other roster needs
- Transactions involving other quarterbacks on Arizona's roster or availability of veteran free agents during offseason
- Brissett's performance during minicamp and training camp in July-August, which directly influences coaching staff decisions
- Official depth chart announcements from Arizona coaching staff in late August before Week 1
- Injury status of competing quarterbacks on the roster or incoming acquisitions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/startingqbweek1-w1
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=startingqbweek1-w1

## License

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