# Will Amendment 1 pass

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 72% across 20 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stateballotmeasure
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.730Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-02

## Headline

- Probability: 72% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $255

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballot Measure 2 | 27¢ | +1pp | $195 | kalshi | /markets/will-ballot-measure-2-pass-ballot-measure-2-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ak-bm2 |
| Proposition 318 | 38¢ | −1pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-318-pass-proposition-318-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p318 |
| Proposition 141 | 81¢ | −1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-141-pass-proposition-141-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p141 |
| Amendment 1 | 89¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-1-pass-amendment-1-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-tn-a1 |
| Legislative Salaries Amendment | 43¢ | +4pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-4-pass-legislative-salaries-amendme-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-nm-a4 |
| Proposition 144 | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-144-pass-proposition-144-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p144 |
| Ballot Measure 3 | 87¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ballot-measure-3-pass-ballot-measure-3-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ak-bm3 |
| Amendment 1 | 82¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-1-pass-amendment-1-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-al-a1 |
| Amendment 2 | 62¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-2-pass-amendment-2-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-al-a2 |
| Amendment 3 | 86¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-3-pass-amendment-3-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-al-a3 |
| Amendment 4 | 74¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amendment-4-pass-amendment-4-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-al-a4 |
| Water Infrastructure Bond Question | 86¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-act-578-pass-water-infrastructure-bond-questi-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ar-a578 |
| Citizens Only Voting Amendment | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-hjr-1018-pass-citizens-only-voting-amendment-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ar-hjr1018 |
| Right to Keep and Bear Arms Amendment | 91¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sjr-11-pass-right-to-keep-and-bear-arms-amend-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ar-sjr11 |
| Economic Development Districts Amendment | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sjr-15-pass-economic-development-districts-am-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-ar-sjr15 |
| Proposition 142 | 61¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-142-pass-proposition-142-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p142 |
| Proposition 316 | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-316-pass-proposition-316-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p316 |
| Proposition 317 | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-317-pass-proposition-317-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p317 |
| Proposition 319 | 86¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-319-pass-proposition-319-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p319 |
| Proposition 320 | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-proposition-320-pass-proposition-320-kalshi-kxstateballotmeasure-az-p320 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 51 |
| 2026-08-17 | 68 |
| 2026-08-24 | 66 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Amendment 2 −37pp 63→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Amendment 3 +37pp 46→83¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Amendment 2 +36pp 26→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-18 · Proposition 320 −29pp 55→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Proposition 319 +28pp 50→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents a 61% probability that Amendment 1, also known as the Acre Limit Amendment, will pass in the upcoming vote. The current probability reflects mixed market sentiment, with the amendment contract trading at 87 cents on Kalshi while showing relatively modest trading volume of $17 in 24 hours. Support levels would likely increase if recent polling shows voters favor limiting acreage restrictions, while opposition could grow if concerns about implementation or economic impacts gain traction. The primary resolution point will be the election date when ballots are counted and official results are certified. Until then, shifts in public opinion, media coverage, and campaign spending may influence the probability as markets incorporate new information about voter preferences on this land-use question.

### Key factors

- The amendment contract trades at 87 cents, suggesting 87% implied probability, which diverges from the 61% average across all 20 Kalshi contracts tracked here
- Trading volume for Amendment 1 is low at $17 in 24 hours compared to Ballot Measure 3 at $47, indicating limited liquidity and potentially thinner price discovery
- Four related ballot measures show varied support levels (76%, 57%, 61%, 29%), suggesting voters may view these land-use and infrastructure questions differently rather than as a unified bloc
- The resolution depends on official election results on a specific date, making pre-election polling data and campaign activity key indicators of directional movement
- Low volume contracts can show larger price swings from small trades, so recent price moves may reflect individual trades rather than broad market consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stateballotmeasure
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=stateballotmeasure

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.