# Who will win the Michigan State House

> Democratic party leads at 91%, runner-up 88% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stateleg
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.298Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Democratic party at 91%
- Runner-up: Republican party at 88%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic party | 91¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-minnesota-state-senate-democratic-kalshi-kxstateleg-mnsen26-d |
| Republican party | 88¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ohio-state-house-republican-party-kalshi-kxstateleg-ohhouse26-r |
| Republican party | 86¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ohio-state-senate-republican-part-kalshi-kxstateleg-ohsen26-r |
| Democratic party | 80¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-minnesota-state-house-democratic-kalshi-kxstateleg-mnhouse26-d |
| Republican party | 76¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-house-republ-kalshi-kxstateleg-nchouse26-r |
| Republican party | 69¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-senate-repub-kalshi-kxstateleg-ncsen26-r |
| Democratic party | 66¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-state-senate-democratic-kalshi-kxstateleg-wisen26-d |
| Republican party | 64¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-state-senate-republ-kalshi-kxstateleg-nhsen26-r |
| Democratic party | 59¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-state-assembly-democrat-kalshi-kxstateleg-wiassembly26-d |
| Democratic party | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-state-house-democra-kalshi-kxstateleg-nhhouse26-d |
| Republican party | 39¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-state-house-republi-kalshi-kxstateleg-nhhouse26-r |
| Republican party | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-state-assembly-republic-kalshi-kxstateleg-wiassembly26-r |
| Democratic party | 34¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-new-hampshire-state-senate-democr-kalshi-kxstateleg-nhsen26-d |
| Republican party | 28¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-wisconsin-state-senate-republican-kalshi-kxstateleg-wisen26-r |
| Democratic party | 24¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-senate-democ-kalshi-kxstateleg-ncsen26-d |
| Democratic party | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-north-carolina-state-house-democr-kalshi-kxstateleg-nchouse26-d |
| Democratic party | 13¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ohio-state-senate-democratic-part-kalshi-kxstateleg-ohsen26-d |
| Republican party | 12¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-minnesota-state-house-republican-kalshi-kxstateleg-mnhouse26-r |
| Democratic party | 11¢ | −19pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-ohio-state-house-democratic-party-kalshi-kxstateleg-ohhouse26-d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Democratic party | Republican party | Republican party |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-16 | 70 | — | — |
| 2026-04-22 | 76 | 67 | 81 |
| 2026-04-23 | 77 | 68 | 83 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | 69 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 71 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 76 | 75 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 84 | — | 82 |
| 2026-05-01 | 85 | — | 84 |
| 2026-05-07 | 88 | — | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Republican party +4pp 64→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Democratic party −3pp 29→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Democratic party +3pp 85→88¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 86% probability reflects traders' assessment that Republicans will win control of the Michigan State House in the next election. This price suggests a decisive Republican advantage in the state's legislative races, though it remains contingent on turnout patterns, district-level dynamics, and any major political shifts before voting occurs. Key factors include the composition of competitive districts, whether state-level momentum favors Republicans or Democrats, and how well each party mobilizes voters in suburban and rural areas. The election result will be determined on the scheduled election day, at which point all uncertainty resolves. Current volatility in related state legislative markets indicates traders view this outcome as probable but not certain.

### Key factors

- Michigan State House district composition and historical Republican performance in competitive seats
- Turnout patterns in suburban districts, which have shifted politically in recent cycles
- State-level political momentum and approval ratings of incumbent leadership heading into the election
- Campaign spending and resource allocation by both parties in targeted districts
- Alignment of Michigan results with broader regional Republican or Democratic performance in other state legislatures

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/stateleg
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=stateleg

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.