# What will Tom Steyer say during Debate Night in California

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 57% across 5 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/steyermention
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:49.046Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 57% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks | 20¢ | +5pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-during-next-nyc-mayor-kalshi-kxmamdanimention-26apr30-knic |
| Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Democracy | 90¢ | +25pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-fighting-oliga-kalshi-kxberniemention-26may03-demo |
| Childcare | 56¢ | −9pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-during-next-nyc-mayor-kalshi-kxmamdanimention-26apr30-chil |
| Automotive | 41¢ | ±0 | $124 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-auto |
| Autonomous / Automation | 76¢ | −7pp | $80 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-on-semiconductor-corporation-say-during-kalshi-kxearningsmentionon-26may04-auto |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | 45 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Democracy +25pp 66→91¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Childcare −9pp 38→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Knicks −8pp 37→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Childcare +8pp 22→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Childcare +8pp 30→38¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/steyermention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=steyermention

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.