# Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 1 contract — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-may
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:45.755Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $637K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 22¢ | −1pp | $637K | polymarket | /markets/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-end-polymarket-0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 41 |
| 2026-04-26 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | 20 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-30 · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? −9pp 33→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? −8pp 41→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-27 · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? +4pp 35→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? −3pp 24→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal operational levels by May 31, 2026. At 19%, the market is pricing in significant skepticism about near-term recovery. The current low probability likely reflects ongoing disruptions to transit patterns, whether from geopolitical tensions, security incidents, or infrastructure constraints that typically take weeks to resolve. The main drivers of this probability are the actual daily transit call volumes reported by IMF PortWatch, which will determine whether traffic meets baseline normal levels before month-end. Related markets show a notable probability gradient: only 5% chance of 60+ daily transits by May 15, rising to 38% by July 1, suggesting markets expect gradual improvement rather than rapid normalization. The critical data points arriving through May will be the weekly transit call averages, which serve as the operational measure of whether conditions have truly stabilized.

### Key factors

- Daily transit call volume through May 3-31 as reported by IMF PortWatch; currently tracking below 60 calls per day based on related market pricing
- Geopolitical or security incidents affecting shipping routes or chokepoint access during May; any escalation would extend disruption timelines
- Infrastructure or port capacity constraints that persist beyond typical recovery windows; these determine the baseline for what constitutes 'normal'
- The definition of 'normal' traffic levels used by market settlers, which appears calibrated to approximately 60+ transit calls daily based on related Kalshi contract pricing
- Time decay effect: with only 28 days remaining in May as of today, there is limited window for conditions to stabilize and data to confirm normalization

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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