# Will the Strait of Hormuz reopen to normal shipping?

> Closed. Last odds frozen 11 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/strait-of-hormuz
Updated: 2026-06-17T06:41:35.318Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? at 86%
- Runner-up: Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? at 84%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 64% / Polymarket 9% — 55pp spread
- 24h volume: $13.0M

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? | 88¢ | +2pp | $225K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270401 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? | 88¢ | +3pp | $513K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270701 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? | 82¢ | +3pp | $787K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b270101 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? | 79¢ | +2pp | $72K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261201 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? | 76¢ | +6pp | $79K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261101 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? | 69¢ | +1pp | $599K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b261001 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? | 60¢ | ±0 | $822K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260901 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026? | 49¢ | ±0 | $2.4M | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260801 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 15, 2026? | 31¢ | — | $100K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260715 |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | 17¢ | — | $507K | polymarket | /markets/iran-agrees-to-unrestricted-shipping-through-hormu-polymarket-0x1723b7ee4118dee6ae6be8802cb7b6e239c37d199997b20a8191e32553a5bd68 |
| Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2026? | 14¢ | ±0 | $5.4M | kalshi | /markets/will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-transit-calls-thr-kalshi-kxhormuznorm-26mar17-b260701 |
| September 30 | 14¢ | +1pp | $300K | polymarket | /markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-septemb-polymarket-0x95fc6a4ed7f6856d26aa7f21b9f902d05c9cf76b616fd3463de4d147f7a9126b |
| June 30 | 3¢ | −1pp | $976K | polymarket | /markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-30-polymarket-0xa976dcc2fac50cf13968adbee89ce1de26df0191b8480b89d418280273197f53 |
| June 22 | 1¢ | −1pp | $92K | polymarket | /markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-22-polymarket-0xcd22707a80bba2d2ce0622e9a3605d82b766285b50ef20745a1d4bb7435cbd27 |
| June 15 | 0¢ | +1pp | $196K | polymarket | /markets/bab-el-mandeb-strait-effectively-closed-by-june-15-polymarket-0x9b6f9eb121e43f6867a0855acae1354c569ce8ba32fbc48422d4dec9210161ae |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before April 1, 2027? | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before July 1, 2027? | Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 83 | 84 | 73 |
| 2026-06-03 | 81 | 84 | 64 |
| 2026-06-10 | 73 | 77 | 64 |
| 2026-06-13 | 81 | 82 | 74 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | — | 77 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before August 1, 2026? +13pp 27→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? +13pp 35→48¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? +10pp 44→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before September 1, 2026? +9pp 48→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before October 1, 2026? +9pp 54→63¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/strait-of-hormuz
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=strait-of-hormuz
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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