# Will Tie win Streamer of the Year at Streamer Awards 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 3 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/strmrsoty
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.418Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IShowSpeed | 57¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ishowspeed-win-streamer-of-the-year-at-stream-kalshi-kxstrmrsoty-26-ish |
| jasontheween | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jasontheween-win-streamer-of-the-year-at-stre-kalshi-kxstrmrsoty-26-jas |
| Jynxzi | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jynxzi-win-streamer-of-the-year-at-streamer-a-kalshi-kxstrmrsoty-26-jyn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 7 |
| 2026-04-25 | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 31 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Jynxzi −3pp 19→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 21% probability suggests Tie has a meaningful but minority chance of winning Streamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards. This estimate reflects expectations about Tie's competitive positioning against other prominent streaming personalities. The probability would likely shift based on streaming performance metrics through the awards period, including viewership trends, audience engagement, and community sentiment. The awards ceremony itself, when voting results are announced or winners declared, represents the key catalyst that will resolve this market. Until then, any significant changes in Tie's content momentum, collaborations, or viewership patterns could influence market participants' assessments of their chances against the field of potential contenders.

### Key factors

- Tie's streaming viewership volume and growth trajectory compared to competing streamers eligible for the award
- Community voting patterns and sentiment on social media platforms where streamer awards are typically discussed and voted upon
- Historical precedent showing which streamers have won or placed highly in previous Streamer Awards ceremonies
- Any major streaming-related announcements, controversy, or content shifts involving Tie or top competing streamers between now and the awards date
- The specific voting criteria and eligibility rules set by the 2026 Streamer Awards organizers that determine qualification and ranking

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/strmrsoty
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=strmrsoty

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.