# Will student loans be forgiven?

> $40 trillion leads at 97%, runner-up 84% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/student-loan-forgiveness
Updated: 2026-08-10T11:20:49.371Z
Category: legislation
Status: active
Closes: 2029-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: $40 trillion at 97%
- Runner-up: $45 trillion at 84%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $40 trillion | 97¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-40-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-40 |
| $45 trillion | 84¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-45-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-45 |
| $50 trillion | 33¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-debt-hit-50-trillion-during-the-kalshi-kxdebtgrowth-28dec31-50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $40 trillion | $45 trillion | $50 trillion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | — | 77 | — |
| 2026-07-12 | — | 78 | 25 |
| 2026-07-25 | 98 | — | 25 |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 78 | 25 |
| 2026-07-27 | 98 | — | 22 |
| 2026-07-29 | 97 | 78 | 19 |
| 2026-08-03 | 98 | 83 | 33 |
| 2026-08-04 | 97 | — | 33 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 84 | 33 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/student-loan-forgiveness
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=student-loan-forgiveness

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.