# Will a bill capping federal student loan interest rates passed the House before Oct 2, 2026

> Before Jan 3, 2027 leads at 8%, runner-up 5% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 21 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/studentloancap-26aug
Updated: 2026-09-21T13:20:49.311Z
Category: legislation · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-03

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 3, 2027 at 8%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 12, 2026 at 5%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 3, 2027 | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-capping-federal-student-loan-interest-kalshi-kxstudentloancap-26aug-27jan03 |
| Before Dec 12, 2026 | 5¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-capping-federal-student-loan-interest-kalshi-kxstudentloancap-26aug-26dec12 |
| Before Oct 2, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-bill-capping-federal-student-loan-interest-kalshi-kxstudentloancap-26aug-26oct02 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 3, 2027 | Before Dec 12, 2026 | Before Oct 2, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | 8 | 5 | — |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 4% chance that the House will pass a bill capping federal student loan interest rates before October 2, 2026—roughly 42 days away. The low probability reflects the compressed timeline and competing legislative priorities in a divided Congress. Student loan policy remains contentious, with Democrats generally favoring rate caps and Republicans opposing them. The probability is depressed by limited recent legislative movement on this issue and the calendar constraints of the current congressional session. Movement would depend on either unexpected bipartisan consensus or a significant shift in legislative priorities. The primary catalyst remains whether leadership schedules a vote; absent that, passage before the deadline becomes increasingly unlikely as the date approaches.

### Key factors

- No student loan interest rate cap bill has advanced through committee or received a House floor vote in 2026 to date
- Congress has 42 calendar days remaining until October 2, 2026, with competing priorities including budget negotiations and election-year legislation
- Democratic control of the Senate and Republican control of the House creates structural misalignment on student loan policy
- Historical precedent: no comprehensive student loan reform has passed both chambers since the 2010 Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act
- A motion to suspend rules and pass such a bill requires unanimous consent or 2/3 supermajority, a high bar for controversial fiscal legislation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/studentloancap-26aug
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=studentloancap-26aug
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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