# Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Jul 27, 2026 to Aug 2, 2026

> Above 260 leads at 86%, runner-up 74% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/suezweekly
Updated: 2026-08-11T03:20:49.159Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Above 260 at 86%
- Runner-up: Above 270 at 74%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 260 | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-260-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxsuezweekly-26aug16-t260 |
| Above 270 | 74¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-270-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxsuezweekly-26aug16-t270 |
| Above 280 | 64¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-280-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxsuezweekly-26aug16-t280 |
| Above 290 | 40¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-290-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxsuezweekly-26aug16-t290 |
| Above 300 | 18¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-300-transit-calls-through-kalshi-kxsuezweekly-26aug16-t300 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 260 | Above 270 | Above 280 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 86 | 74 | 64 |
| 2026-08-10 | 87 | — | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates an 86% probability that the Suez Canal will record more than 260 transit calls between July 27 and August 2, 2026. The Suez Canal is one of the world's most critical shipping chokepoints, and daily transit volumes fluctuate based on global trade patterns, seasonal demand, vessel scheduling, and any disruptions to canal operations. At this probability level, the market is pricing in a baseline expectation of normal to above-normal traffic flow for this seven-day window. The outcome will be finalized when official transit data is published by the Suez Canal Authority for the specified week. Key uncertainties include whether geopolitical events, weather conditions, or operational incidents disrupt passage, and whether summer shipping patterns align with historical norms or deviate significantly.

### Key factors

- Suez Canal Authority publishes daily transit counts; the market must wait for official data covering July 27–August 2, 2026 to resolve
- Seasonal summer shipping demand and vessel scheduling are major drivers of baseline traffic; sustained disruptions (attacks, blockages, or canal closures) would push counts lower
- The spread between 260 (86¢), 270 (74¢), and 280 (64¢) contracts suggests market uncertainty about the magnitude above 260, indicating traders believe the outcome is likely but the exact volume is uncertain
- Historical Suez Canal transit averages typically range 40–50 transits per day; 260 in seven days equals ~37 per day, which is plausible but would require verification against recent actuals
- No scheduled maintenance or announced force majeure events are priced in at this probability; any new disruption announcement would lower the probability materially

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/suezweekly
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=suezweekly

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.