# Will the sugar close price be above $14.29 on Apr 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 1 contract — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sugarmon
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.510Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| above $5013.99 | 12¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-gold-close-price-be-above-501399-usdtoz-o-kalshi-kxgoldmon-26may2917-t5013.99 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-03 | 8 |
| 2026-05-06 | 10 |
| 2026-05-07 | 12 |
| 2026-05-08 | 11 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · above $5013.99 +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sugarmon
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sugarmon

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.