# Will Dara Levitan be cast in Summer House

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 53% across 14 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/summerhousecast
Updated: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.285Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 53% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $487

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season 11?: Lindsay Hubbard | 69¢ | −2pp | $156 | kalshi | /markets/will-lindsay-hubbard-be-cast-in-summer-house-seaso-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-lin |
| Season 11?: Amanda Batula | 25¢ | −8pp | $144 | kalshi | /markets/will-amanda-batula-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-ama |
| Season 11?: West Wilson | 4¢ | +3pp | $53 | kalshi | /markets/will-west-wilson-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-wes |
| Season 11?: Ciara Miller | 60¢ | −13pp | $44 | kalshi | /markets/will-ciara-miller-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-1-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-cia |
| Season 11?: Mia Calabrese | 92¢ | −8pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-mia-calabrese-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-mia |
| Season 11?: Carl Radke | 75¢ | +7pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-carl-radke-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-car |
| Season 11?: Dara Levitan | 42¢ | +1pp | $17 | kalshi | /markets/will-dara-levitan-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-1-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-dar |
| Season 11?: Ben Waddell | 17¢ | −3pp | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-ben-waddell-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-ben |
| Season 11?: Kyle Cooke | 79¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-kyle-cooke-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-kyl |
| Season 11?: Meija Moreno | 43¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-meija-moreno-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-1-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-mei |
| Season 11?: Levi Sebree | 30¢ | +6pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-levi-sebree-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-lev |
| Season 11?: Bailey Taylor | 78¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bailey-taylor-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-bai |
| Season 11?: Jesse Solomon | 85¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jesse-solomon-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-jes |
| Season 11?: KJ Dillard | 44¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kj-dillard-be-cast-in-summer-house-season-11-kalshi-kxsummerhousecast-27-kjd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 44 |
| 2026-06-12 | 44 |
| 2026-06-19 | 31 |
| 2026-06-25 | 44 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Season 11?: Lindsay Hubbard −50pp 92→42¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Season 11?: Jesse Solomon +36pp 25→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Season 11?: Jesse Solomon −33pp 58→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Season 11?: Kyle Cooke +32pp 49→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Season 11?: KJ Dillard −32pp 35→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 42% probability that Dara Levitan will be cast in Summer House Season 11. The probability sits between other returning cast members—lower than Lindsay Hubbard (36¢) and comparable to Jesse Solomon and Mia Calabrese (40¢ each)—suggesting moderate uncertainty about her participation. Season 11 casting decisions typically depend on contract negotiations, storyline requirements, and cast dynamics from previous seasons. The main resolution catalyst will be official casting announcements from Bravo, which historically occur 4-8 weeks before production begins. Factors pushing probability up include established fan presence and prior seasons of participation; factors pushing it down include potential cast turnover decisions or strategic refreshes by producers. The relatively modest trading volume ($21-1,287 across comparable contracts) indicates limited market confidence in any direction.

### Key factors

- Dara Levitan's casting probability (42%) positions her in the middle tier of returning cast member likelihood, below confirmed veterans but aligned with other uncertain participants
- Official casting announcements from Bravo remain the deterministic resolution event; historically scheduled 4-8 weeks before production begins
- Trading volume on comparable Season 11 casting contracts ($23-1,287 in 24h) suggests limited market conviction, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus
- Cast rotation decisions typically hinge on contract renegotiations, storyline arcs from Season 10, and producer objectives for maintaining vs. refreshing ensemble dynamics
- Prior season participation and fan engagement history are concrete data points influencing the probability, distinguishable from speculation about interpersonal drama or off-screen factors

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/summerhousecast
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=summerhousecast

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.