# Will Hoshoryu Tomokatsu win the Tokyo Grand Sumo Tournament

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sumowin
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.186Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Onosato Daiki | 15¢ | −8pp | $666 | kalshi | /markets/will-onosato-daiki-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-tourna-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-onda |
| Hoshoryu Tomokatsu | 36¢ | +2pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/will-hoshoryu-tomokatsu-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-t-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-hoto |
| Aonishiki Arata | 10¢ | +3pp | $127 | kalshi | /markets/will-aonishiki-arata-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-tour-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-aara |
| Kirishima Tetsuo | 7¢ | +1pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-kirishima-tetsuo-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-tou-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-kite |
| Kotozakura Masakatsu | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kotozakura-masakatsu-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-koma |
| Wakatakakage Atsushi | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-wakatakakage-atsushi-win-the-tokyo-grand-sumo-kalshi-kxsumowin-26jgsmay-waat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 17 |
| 2026-05-07 | 16 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Onosato Daiki −8pp 25→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Aonishiki Arata +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sumowin
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sumowin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.