# Will OpenAI / ChatGPT run an ad during the Big Game 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/superbowlad
Updated: 2026-06-25T19:20:50.719Z
Category: sports · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-15

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $456

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zyn | 6¢ | −2pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-zyn-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-zyn-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-zyn |
| Nike | 39¢ | +3pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/will-nike-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-nike-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-nike |
| DoorDash | 34¢ | +2pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/will-doordash-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-d-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-door |
| Hims & Hers | 82¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/will-hims-hers-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-hims |
| Gemini | 75¢ | +3pp | $34 | kalshi | /markets/will-gemini-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-gem-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-gemi |
| Jeep | 17¢ | +7pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-jeep-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-jeep-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-jeep |
| OpenAI / ChatGPT | 85¢ | +2pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-openai-chatgpt-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-open |
| Allstate | 12¢ | +5pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-allstate-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-a-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-alls |
| Amazon Prime | 83¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amazon-prime-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-20-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-amaz |
| Base44 / Wix | 25¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-base44-wix-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-base |
| Anthropic / Claude | 61¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anthropic-claude-run-an-ad-during-the-big-gam-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-clau |
| Coinbase | 40¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-coinbase-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-c-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-coin |
| Disney+ | 90¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-disney-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-dis-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-disn |
| Grok | 50¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grok-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-grok-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-grok |
| Liquid Death | 35¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-liquid-death-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-20-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-liou |
| Oakley | 54¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-oakley-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-oak-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-oakl |
| Paramount+ | 20¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-paramount-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-para |
| SpaceX | 15¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spacex-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-spa-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-spac |
| Spotify | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-spotify-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-sp-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-spot |
| Temu | 25¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-temu-run-an-ad-during-the-big-game-2027-temu-kalshi-kxsuperbowlad-sb2027-temu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | 41 |
| 2026-06-25 | 63 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-22 · Allstate −46pp 51→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Allstate −28pp 79→51¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Disney+ −26pp 51→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · SpaceX −25pp 37→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Base44 / Wix −23pp 39→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 53% probability that OpenAI will purchase advertising during Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether the company will pursue mass-market television advertising at this scale, weighing both OpenAI's rapid growth and mainstream adoption of ChatGPT against its historically limited consumer advertising spend. Key factors include OpenAI's current marketing strategy and budget allocation, competitive pressure from other AI companies seeking visibility, the cost and ROI calculus of Super Bowl ads (typically $5-7 million for 30 seconds), and broader corporate spending patterns during economic conditions in early 2027. The contract will resolve definitively when the Super Bowl airs on February 2, 2027, with ad buys typically confirmed weeks in advance. Comparable tech companies show mixed patterns: while Nike and Disney+ show higher probabilities, SpaceX trades lower, suggesting markets view OpenAI's ad strategy as moderately likely but uncertain.

### Key factors

- OpenAI's marketing spending and brand strategy decisions between June 2026 and January 2027, including announcements about paid advertising priorities
- Pricing and availability of Super Bowl LXI ad slots, and whether OpenAI publicly commits to or rejects the opportunity
- Competitive dynamics with other AI-focused companies (Microsoft, Google, Anthropic) and their advertising plans
- Economic conditions and OpenAI's financial performance in H2 2026 affecting discretionary marketing budgets
- Historical pattern of OpenAI's consumer-facing marketing campaigns versus enterprise-focused positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/superbowlad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=superbowlad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

## License

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