# Will Fenerbahce Istanbul win the Turkish Super Lig

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 10 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/superlig
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:24.877Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-08

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Besiktas Istanbul | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-besiktas-istanbul-win-the-turkish-super-lig-b-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-bes |
| Antalyaspor | 23¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-antalyaspor-win-the-turkish-super-lig-antalya-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-ant |
| Galatasaray Istanbul | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-galatasaray-istanbul-win-the-turkish-super-li-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-gal |
| Caykur Rizespor | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-caykur-rizespor-win-the-turkish-super-lig-cay-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-riz |
| Kocaelispor | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kocaelispor-win-the-turkish-super-lig-kocaeli-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-koc |
| Istanbul Basaksehir | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-istanbul-basaksehir-win-the-turkish-super-lig-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-bas |
| Fatih Karagumruk Istanbul | 36¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fatih-karagumruk-istanbul-win-the-turkish-sup-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-kar |
| Gaziantep FK | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-gaziantep-fk-win-the-turkish-super-lig-gazian-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-gaz |
| Kasimpasa Istanbul | 48¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kasimpasa-istanbul-win-the-turkish-super-lig-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-kas |
| Eyupspor | 49¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eyupspor-win-the-turkish-super-lig-eyupspor-kalshi-kxsuperlig-26-eyu |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 67 |
| 2026-04-25 | 69 |
| 2026-05-02 | 79 |
| 2026-05-09 | 93 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Galatasaray Istanbul +8pp 84→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Galatasaray Istanbul +5pp 79→84¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Galatasaray Istanbul −3pp 82→79¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 26% probability indicates that prediction market participants assess Fenerbahce Istanbul as having roughly a one-in-four chance of winning the 2026 Turkish Super Lig championship. The odds reflect Galatasaray's current dominance, with markets pricing their title probability at 81%, suggesting they are the clear favorites. Fenerbahce's probability will move based on league standings and head-to-head performance in the remainder of the season, with decisive matches against top competitors serving as key turning points. The championship will be settled when the regular season concludes and final standings are determined, at which point the market resolves to either Fenerbahce winning or another club claiming the title. Current market pricing suggests substantial skepticism about Fenerbahce's title prospects relative to Galatasaray and other contenders.

### Key factors

- Galatasaray holds an 81% implied probability of winning the league, indicating Fenerbahce faces a significant gap in market assessment
- The 26% probability for Fenerbahce implies combined probability of approximately 93% for either Galatasaray or other competitors, leaving little room for upset scenarios
- Head-to-head results between Fenerbahce and Galatasaray throughout the remaining season will be critical data points for probability adjustments
- Fenerbahce's current position in the league standings and goal differential compared to competitors will determine the plausibility of a title run
- Injuries to key players or managerial changes at Fenerbahce or rival clubs could shift probabilities by altering expected performance trajectories

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/superlig
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=superlig

## License

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