# Will there be a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 37% across 1 contract — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/supreme-court-vacancy
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.777Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $7

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supreme Court vacancy in 2026? | 37¢ | +1pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/supreme-court-vacancy-in-2026-polymarket-0x4bfb8b7fd515c8a4371ef6fc48289bae5b2736252aa6b710e6edaeeb26d96e3b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 34 |
| 2026-05-25 | 36 |
| 2026-06-01 | 37 |
| 2026-06-02 | 38 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Prediction markets currently estimate a 37% chance of a Supreme Court vacancy occurring in 2026. While the odds of a new justice being confirmed by the end of the year are slightly higher at 45%, the potential for legal instability surrounding sitting justices remains a low-probability concern, with only a 10% chance priced in for a justice being charged with a federal crime before 2027.

### Key factors

- 37% vacancy probability
- 45% confirmation likelihood
- 10% justice criminal charge risk
- SCOTUS institutional stability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/supreme-court-vacancy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=supreme-court-vacancy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.