# Surf FDV above ___ one day after launch — $50M

> $50M leads at 71%, runner-up 62% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.735Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 71%
- Runner-up: $100M at 62%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 71¢ | +1pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0xd048b3e9ccad82c57a4eec953e75794aeb5e6d0e08bdb79b9e01b24e0049f16d |
| $100M | 62¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x88310713845c54e36f29791a1c2dc172b9819b645ba82d5f87560805cd2bb788 |
| $200M | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0xffcab88076a28795281bb07a082c7003a4ff5671420086cb16ec09dfbf9aea68 |
| $300M | 41¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0x64a5bcfb0c76a75081c8be49c895a976d506fce8d21aa9d73f1099e502f2fa4e |
| $500M | 34¢ | +1pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x8babe4f4d0eff732d660fa02929a581cb8478ed2a1696c158290b2794d3d7ac0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 67 | 51 | 41 |
| 2026-04-24 | 70 | 49 | 44 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 50 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 62 | 64 |
| 2026-05-07 | 71 | 62 | 57 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 62 | 57 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $300M +32pp 15→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M −20pp 42→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $200M −4pp 64→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M −3pp 65→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $200M −3pp 67→64¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contracts group measures whether various cryptocurrency tokens will reach a $50 million fully-diluted valuation within one day of their respective launches. The leading contract currently prices this at 68%, suggesting traders believe it more likely than not that tokens will achieve this threshold immediately upon launch. Several factors drive this probability: early liquidity on major exchanges often inflates valuations quickly, token allocation design and community enthusiasm at launch generate trading volume, and comparisons to prior token launches inform expectations. The contracts show declining probabilities as valuation targets increase (500M trades lower than 50M), suggesting market confidence erodes as thresholds rise. Actual valuations will depend on initial exchange listing details, trading volume, price discovery mechanisms, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions at launch time.

### Key factors

- Initial exchange liquidity: tokens listed on high-volume pairs (Uniswap, major CEXs) tend to reach higher valuations faster than lower-liquidity launches
- First-day trading volume relative to circulating supply: high volume with limited supply naturally produces higher market cap, making $50M thresholds more achievable than $500M-$1B targets
- Token allocation concentration: if founding teams or early investors hold large percentages, it constrains free float and can artificially inflate per-token prices on day one
- Comparison baseline: recent similar token launches provide empirical reference points for 24-hour valuation patterns and help traders calibrate probability expectations
- Market conditions on launch date: broader crypto market sentiment and BTC/ETH performance at launch directly influence risk appetite for newly-minted token purchases

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=surf-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.