# Will Linda Annis win the 2026 Surrey mayoral election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/surreymayor
Updated: 2026-09-21T23:20:54.537Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-17

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $153

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linda Annis | 17¢ | +6pp | $153 | kalshi | /markets/will-linda-annis-win-the-2026-surrey-mayoral-elect-kalshi-kxsurreymayor-26oct17-lann |
| Brenda Locke | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brenda-locke-win-the-2026-surrey-mayoral-elec-kalshi-kxsurreymayor-26oct17-bloc |
| Doug McCallum | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doug-mccallum-win-the-2026-surrey-mayoral-ele-kalshi-kxsurreymayor-26oct17-dmcc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 24 |
| 2026-09-07 | 29 |
| 2026-09-12 | 24 |
| 2026-09-19 | 29 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Brenda Locke +35pp 36→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Linda Annis −13pp 23→10¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Brenda Locke −8pp 44→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-19 · Linda Annis +6pp 8→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-17 · Doug McCallum −5pp 6→1¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 14% probability reflects Linda Annis's chances of winning Surrey's 2026 mayoral election based on prediction market trading. The forecast places her as a mid-tier candidate behind frontrunners like Brenda Locke (30%) but ahead of several others. Current market assessment suggests she faces structural challenges in the race, though the outcome remains genuinely uncertain. Trading volume on Annis contracts has been minimal, indicating limited conviction among traders. The race will be resolved on election day in October 2026, when Surrey residents vote. Market prices could shift significantly if new polling emerges, campaign developments occur, or if endorsements and fundraising data become public. The relatively modest probability assigned to Annis compared to Locke suggests market participants currently view her as unlikely to secure the mayoralty, though prediction markets are not certainty and outcomes routinely diverge from stated probabilities.

### Key factors

- Brenda Locke holds a 2.1x higher probability (30%) than Linda Annis (14%), indicating market consensus favors Locke as the frontrunner candidate
- Linda Annis contracts have traded at 31¢ with zero volume in the last 24 hours, suggesting minimal recent market activity or changing sentiment
- The mayor's race is three-candidate focused at the top tier (Locke, Annis, Troy Van Vliet at 3¢), with remaining candidates all single-digit probabilities
- Official polling data, campaign finance reports, and voter surveys have not been referenced in available contract information, leaving the basis for current odds unclear
- The election is scheduled for October 2026, approximately one month away, limiting time for major shifts in candidate positioning or unexpected developments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/surreymayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=surreymayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.