# Survivor 50 Winner

> Aubry Bracco leads at 88%, runner-up 7% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivor-50-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:42.290Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-20

## Headline

- Leader: Aubry Bracco at 88%
- Runner-up: Cirie Fields at 7%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubry Bracco | 88¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/survivor-50-winner-aubry-bracco-polymarket-0xa0965c6e18be3e0893f9a3f69cd77e8d998e817dfab4ad7c5388b5f718d1efeb |
| Cirie Fields | 7¢ | +2pp | $74 | polymarket | /markets/survivor-50-winner-cirie-fields-polymarket-0xc4901cb13cdc704ae5f79e631dabec454791d6f42efeb4abc9e608048176e9a5 |
| Jonathan Young | 3¢ | ±0 | $161 | polymarket | /markets/survivor-50-winner-jonathan-young-polymarket-0xe0818e62ab9e8ed5448a486da3dd661b17f4bc388ab3a20c822a1f524cbdeedb |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aubry Bracco | Cirie Fields | Jonathan Young |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 81 | 11 | — |
| 2026-04-10 | 79 | 13 | 2 |
| 2026-04-24 | 80 | 12 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 10 | 3 |
| 2026-04-29 | 84 | 9 | 3 |
| 2026-05-02 | 91 | 3 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 88 | 7 | 3 |
| 2026-05-09 | 88 | — | 3 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Aubry Bracco −4pp 89→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Aubry Bracco +3pp 85→88¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Aubry Bracco is priced at 90% to win Survivor 50, meaning traders believe she has roughly a 9-in-10 chance of winning the season. This estimate reflects expectations about her gameplay, positioning within the tribe dynamics, and performance in immunity challenges compared to other finalists. The probability could shift significantly if her alliance fractures, if hidden idols change the voting calculus, or if her threat level causes other players to target her before the finale. The season's finale, scheduled for airing on [date], will ultimately resolve this contract when the winner is definitively announced. Until then, probabilities remain sensitive to post-merge tribal councils and hidden-advantage discoveries that could alter her path to victory.

### Key factors

- Aubry's current contract trades at 90¢ while next-highest competitors (Ozzy, Jonathan, Cirie) trade at 3¢, indicating strong market consensus rather than uncertainty
- 24-hour volume on Aubry's contract ($19,872) vastly exceeds all other contracts combined, suggesting concentrated belief in her victory
- The four-contract structure caps Aubry's implied probability at her individual market price, not a derived percentage, meaning 90% reflects direct trader assessment of her winnability
- Hidden idols, tribe swaps, or fire-making tiebreakers between now and finale could suddenly shift equity away from front-runners
- Aubry's position relative to other all-stars and potential jury voting patterns would be key variables traders consider when pricing her chances

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivor-50-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=survivor-50-winner

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.