# Will Christian Hubicki be eliminated from Survivor Season 50 Episode 9 before Apr 24, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 6 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivorelimination
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.119Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-23

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $22K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rick Devens | 47¢ | +5pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-rick-devens-be-eliminated-from-survivor-seaso-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-ric |
| Cirie Fields | 35¢ | −5pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-cirie-fields-be-eliminated-from-survivor-seas-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-cir |
| Tiffany Nicole Ervin | 43¢ | +6pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-tiffany-nicole-ervin-be-eliminated-from-survi-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-tif |
| Joe Hunter | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-joe-hunter-be-eliminated-from-survivor-season-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-joe |
| Rizo Velovic | 4¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rizo-velovic-be-eliminated-from-survivor-seas-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-riz |
| Jonathan Young | 3¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-jonathan-young-be-eliminated-from-survivor-se-kalshi-kxsurvivorelimination-26may23-jon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 19 |
| 2026-05-08 | 21 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Tiffany Nicole Ervin +6pp 24→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Rick Devens +5pp 55→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Cirie Fields −5pp 27→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivorelimination
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=survivorelimination

## License

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