# What will Jeff Probst say during Survivor Season 50 Episode 9

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 20 contracts — refreshed 9 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivormention
Updated: 2026-05-05T12:50:34.392Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-22

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $27K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Million | 97¢ | +12pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-mill |
| Puzzle | 13¢ | +6pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-puzz |
| Fire | 35¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-fire |
| Water | 89¢ | +12pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-wate |
| Rope | 3¢ | +4pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-rope |
| Safe / Safety | 95¢ | +5pp | $463 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-safe |
| Hunger / Hungry | 8¢ | +3pp | $454 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-hung |
| Dig Deep | 5¢ | ±0 | $444 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-dig |
| Sit Out | 15¢ | −1pp | $422 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-sit |
| Key | 19¢ | +4pp | $376 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-key |
| Alliance | 13¢ | +3pp | $366 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-alli |
| Comeback / Come Back | 15¢ | +3pp | $362 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-come |
| Trust | 34¢ | +3pp | $362 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-trus |
| Journey | 24¢ | +5pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-jour |
| Tie / Tied | 71¢ | +6pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-tie |
| Shelter | 14¢ | +4pp | $220 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-shel |
| Drop / Dropped | 62¢ | −4pp | $161 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-drop |
| MrBeast / Beast | 89¢ | +7pp | $129 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-mrbe |
| Record / Longest | 63¢ | −9pp | $124 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-reco |
| Bond / Bonded / Bonding | 37¢ | +4pp | $91 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-any-participating-contestant-say-during-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may07-bond |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 35 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Million +12pp 85→97¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Water +12pp 53→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Record / Longest −9pp 38→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · MrBeast / Beast +7pp 53→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Puzzle +6pp 14→20¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/survivormention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=survivormention

## License

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