# Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 58% across 12 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/svoteclarity
Updated: 2026-06-25T17:20:50.474Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 58% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rand Paul | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rand-paul-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structure-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-rpau |
| Angela Alsobrooks | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-angela-alsobrooks-vote-for-a-crypto-market-st-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-aals |
| Andy Kim | 17¢ | +15pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andy-kim-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structure-b-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-akim |
| Catherine Cortez Masto | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-catherine-cortez-masto-vote-for-a-crypto-mark-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-cmas |
| Josh Hawley | 72¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-josh-hawley-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structur-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-jhaw |
| Jerry Moran | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jerry-moran-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structur-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-jmor |
| Kirsten Gillibrand | 52¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kirsten-gillibrand-vote-for-a-crypto-market-s-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-kgil |
| Lisa Blunt Rochester | 62¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lisa-blunt-rochester-vote-for-a-crypto-market-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-lroc |
| Mike Lee | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-lee-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structure-b-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-mlee |
| Mark Warner | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-warner-vote-for-a-crypto-market-structur-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-mwar |
| Ruben Gallego | 67¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ruben-gallego-vote-for-a-crypto-market-struct-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-rgal |
| Raphael Warnock | 37¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-raphael-warnock-vote-for-a-crypto-market-stru-kalshi-kxsvoteclarity-may26-rwar |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 8 |
| 2026-06-11 | 2 |
| 2026-06-23 | 2 |
| 2026-06-25 | 63 |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Jerry Moran +71pp 2→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Josh Hawley +70pp 2→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Angela Alsobrooks +65pp 2→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Mike Lee +65pp 2→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Mark Warner +65pp 2→67¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measure tracks the likelihood that Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) will vote yes on a crypto market structure bill as specifically defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE. At 51%, the market implies essentially even odds with slight lean toward support. Gillibrand's vote depends on the bill's specific provisions, particularly how it balances regulatory oversight with industry preferences, and whether it aligns with her broader financial-services positions. Democratic senators show mixed positions on crypto legislation—ranging from strong support (Jerry Moran at 65%) to skepticism (Andy Kim at 10%)—suggesting the bill's text and political context will prove decisive. Key catalysts include the bill's formal introduction in Congress, committee markups that may reveal Gillibrand's stance through statements or amendments, and any public positions she takes on crypto regulation before a floor vote.

### Key factors

- Gillibrand's historical voting pattern on financial regulation and technology oversight bills
- The specific regulatory provisions in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE, particularly around consumer protections versus industry flexibility
- Whether the bill receives bipartisan support or emerges as partisan, influencing New York Democratic positioning
- Any prior public statements or committee testimony from Gillibrand on cryptocurrency market structure
- The timing and political context of a floor vote relative to broader legislative priorities in Congress

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/svoteclarity
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=svoteclarity
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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