# Sweden vs. Tunisia

> Sweden leads at 50%, runner-up 29% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sweden-vs-tunisia
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.498Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-15

## Headline

- Leader: Sweden at 50%
- Runner-up: Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia) at 29%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sweden-vs-tunisia-sweden-polymarket-0xc6f7e4a015ec643eb49c749da19553a2257add76278a252805a12dfa85103269 |
| Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia) | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sweden-vs-tunisia-draw-sweden-vs-tunisia-polymarket-0x11e4780f48d73417a4863618e288e78c8848e2ef4f744dca4cabdff154af5e3c |
| Tunisia | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sweden-vs-tunisia-tunisia-polymarket-0xb5e6e5829c986107aebc5b4b18429b007a813f2b5ca860993020f27ef9f0e080 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Sweden | Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia) | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 50 | 29 | 23 |
| 2026-05-01 | 50 | 27 | 23 |
| 2026-05-02 | 50 | 27 | 23 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 29 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Sweden vs. Tunisia) +3pp 26→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 50% probability indicates roughly even odds that Sweden will defeat Tunisia in their upcoming match. The current assessment reflects limited market depth, with only $9 in daily volume on the most traded contract (Tunisia vs. Japan), suggesting low conviction among traders. Key drivers of this probability include the relative strengths of both teams in regional competition, recent form and head-to-head history, and whether either squad is dealing with injuries or roster changes. The match outcome will depend heavily on tactical execution, ball possession, and conversion efficiency on the day. Resolution occurs upon match completion, which would immediately determine the winner and settle all related contracts. The thin trading volume indicates meaningful uncertainty—modest new information about team composition or recent results could shift the probability materially in either direction.

### Key factors

- Trading volume on Sweden vs. Tunisia contracts is negligible ($0 24h), indicating low market confidence and potential for sharp shifts if new information emerges
- Related markets show Netherlands favored over Sweden (51¢) and Japan favored over Tunisia (57¢), which may inform expectations about each team's competitive level
- The runner-up outcome (likely a draw) trades at 27¢, suggesting the market assigns meaningful probability to a non-decisive result
- Recent form, head-to-head records, and any team roster changes prior to match day will be primary factors influencing final odds movement
- The 50% headline probability represents the leading contract price rather than an arithmetic average, reflecting actual market clearing rather than consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sweden-vs-tunisia
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sweden-vs-tunisia

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.