# Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sweden7vote
Updated: 2026-09-20T13:20:51.882Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-09-18

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centre Party | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-centre-party-be-the-sole-party-with-the-seven-kalshi-kxsweden7vote-26sep13-centre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | 13 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated chance that Sweden's Left Party will finish with the seventh-highest vote share in the 2026 Riksdag election. The 16% probability suggests markets view the Left Party as a credible but not leading contender for this specific ranking. Multiple parties cluster around similar vote-share levels—Centre Party, Green Party, and Christian Democrats each trade at 23%—indicating genuine uncertainty about which smaller parties will occupy mid-tier positions. The outcome depends heavily on actual voter turnout, campaign dynamics in the final weeks before the election, and whether any smaller parties experience unexpected polling shifts. The Swedish Election Authority will determine final vote shares once voting concludes on election day in September 2026, settling all related markets.

### Key factors

- Left Party's recent polling trend versus competitors: Centre Party, Greens, and Christian Democrats currently show slightly higher market probabilities, suggesting they poll marginally ahead
- Vote-share volatility among parties ranked 5th-8th: Small shifts in any party's support could alter which party places seventh, making the outcome sensitive to campaign developments
- Turnout composition and voter mobilization: Changes in which demographic groups vote at higher rates can significantly impact smaller parties' final vote shares
- Recent Left Party election performance and historical benchmarks: Their standing relative to 2022 Riksdag results provides context for whether 16% represents an underestimate or overestimate
- Election date catalyst: Final results will be published by the Swedish Election Authority in September 2026, providing definitive resolution of vote-share rankings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sweden7vote
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sweden7vote
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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