# between 8,000 to 8,999 border encounters in Apr 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 9 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/swencounters
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.494Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 9 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75,000 to 79,999.99 | 7¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-75000-to-7999999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b77500 |
| 55,000 to 59,999.99 | 4¢ | −1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-55000-to-5999999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b57500 |
| 70,000 to 74,999.99 | 6¢ | −1pp | $630 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-70000-to-7499999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b72500 |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 5¢ | −1pp | $337 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-sp-500-be-between-6800-and-699999-on-dec-kalshi-kxinxy-26dec31h1600-b6900 |
| 40,000 to 44,999.99 | 5¢ | ±0 | $232 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-40000-to-4499999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b42500 |
| 105,000 to 109,999.99 | 3¢ | +1pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-105000-to-10999999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b107500 |
| 50,000 to 54,999.99 | 4¢ | ±0 | $28 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-50000-to-5499999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b52500 |
| 35,000 to 39,999.99 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-35000-to-3999999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b37500 |
| 45,000 to 49,999.99 | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/btc-price-on-jan-1-2027-45000-to-4999999-kalshi-kxbtcy-27jan0100-b47500 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 6 |
| 2026-04-24 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | 6 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/swencounters
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=swencounters

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.