# Thun vs Lugano Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 12 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/swissleaguegame
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:42.037Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-24

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $10
- Resolved: Lugano

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Young Boys | 48¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/young-boys-vs-basel-winner-young-boys-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10ybfcb-yb |
| Basel | 26¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/young-boys-vs-basel-winner-basel-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10ybfcb-fcb |
| Tie | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/young-boys-vs-basel-winner-tie-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10ybfcb-tie |
| Sion | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sion-vs-thun-winner-sion-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10siothu-sio |
| Thun | 18¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sion-vs-thun-winner-thun-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10siothu-thu |
| Tie | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/sion-vs-thun-winner-tie-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10siothu-tie |
| Lugano | 41¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lugano-vs-st-gallen-winner-lugano-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10lugstg-lug |
| St. Gallen | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lugano-vs-st-gallen-winner-st-gallen-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10lugstg-stg |
| Tie | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/lugano-vs-st-gallen-winner-tie-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may10lugstg-tie |
| Luzern | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luzern-vs-servette-geneva-winner-luzern-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may09luzser-luz |
| Servette Geneva | 31¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luzern-vs-servette-geneva-winner-servette-geneva-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may09luzser-ser |
| Tie | 24¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/luzern-vs-servette-geneva-winner-tie-kalshi-kxswissleaguegame-26may09luzser-tie |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 28 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 |
| 2026-05-08 | 33 |
| 2026-05-09 | 37 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Servette Geneva +4pp 24→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Tie +4pp 20→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · Sion +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-09 · Servette Geneva +3pp 28→31¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/swissleaguegame
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=swissleaguegame

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.