# Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina

> Switzerland leads at 62%, runner-up 23% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.012Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-18

## Headline

- Leader: Switzerland at 62%
- Runner-up: Draw (Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) at 23%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 62¢ | +3pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-switzerland-polymarket-0x870bb248c96c52dcf35390a66542471c5bba2896942d6bc97ade41a418646ba8 |
| Draw (Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) | 23¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-draw-switzer-polymarket-0x04f0f21d77609ef19ef1c36749a8f522e471802384f484b80de4f789b1a90bb4 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina-bosnia-and-h-polymarket-0x271f673391000932a03311e9a6ce6152eb4e1a60bda85a9ce7c14e87dadcdfd4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Switzerland | Draw (Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina) | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 56 | 25 | 22 |
| 2026-05-02 | 54 | 24 | 24 |
| 2026-05-08 | 60 | 24 | 19 |
| 2026-05-09 | 63 | — | 18 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Switzerland +5pp 54→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · Switzerland +3pp 60→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Bosnia and Herzegovina −3pp 25→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Bosnia and Herzegovina −3pp 22→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Switzerland will defeat Bosnia and Herzegovina in an upcoming match. The 54% price suggests Switzerland enters as the clear favorite but with meaningful uncertainty—Bosnia represents a legitimate underdog threat. Market participants are likely weighing Switzerland's FIFA ranking, recent form, and home-field factors against Bosnia's potential tactical setup and recent performance trends. The primary catalyst is the match itself, which will definitively resolve this outcome. Shifts in betting odds before kickoff would reflect team news (injuries, lineup changes), weather conditions, or late-breaking performance data that affects perceptions of either team's chances on the day.

### Key factors

- Switzerland's FIFA ranking and recent competitive results compared to Bosnia and Herzegovina's current standing
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams in recent qualifying or friendly matches
- Home or neutral field advantage status for the scheduled match
- Reported team injuries, suspensions, or lineup unavailability affecting either squad's likely starting XI
- The match date and time, as it determines when market uncertainty resolves to a definitive outcome

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=switzerland-vs-bosnia-and-herzegovina

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.