# Switzerland vs. Canada

> Switzerland leads at 40%, runner-up 39% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerland-vs-canada
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.384Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Leader: Switzerland at 40%
- Runner-up: Canada at 39%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland | 40¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-canada-switzerland-polymarket-0xe1953a0f479de0ff3efabb7dff6116ff6cb9d7fe2d7ee6526c5d68da9cf09767 |
| Canada | 39¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-canada-canada-polymarket-0xfec117e3f24c0ee72f753bb35c743d6248212998c001b400609858caeb3fcc00 |
| Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada) | 36¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/switzerland-vs-canada-draw-switzerland-vs-canada-polymarket-0x10b4a49cc233715e3b2154533c654fcbdcac6c03b3b415611c5c014872e80b3b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Switzerland | Canada | Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 42 | — | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 41 | — | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-07 | 42 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 41 | — | 37 |
| 2026-05-09 | 40 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada) −4pp 38→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Draw (Switzerland vs. Canada) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 41% probability reflects market participants' assessment that Switzerland has roughly two-to-five odds against Canada in their matchup. The market shows relatively thin liquidity with minimal volume on direct Switzerland-Canada contracts, suggesting limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty around the outcome. Key drivers of this probability include each team's recent performance metrics, head-to-head historical records, and current squad composition. The matchup itself will resolve uncertainty when the game is played, with the result determining whether the 41% probability was an accurate reflection of the competitive balance. Related markets show Qatar trading at 10 cents in one Switzerland matchup, indicating broader tournament or competition dynamics may influence how traders value Switzerland's chances overall.

### Key factors

- Direct Switzerland-Canada contract shows 37 cents for a draw outcome, indicating meaningful probability assigned to non-decisive results
- Thin volume on Switzerland-Canada contracts ($0 recorded volume) suggests limited market conviction and potential pricing inefficiency
- Related markets value Switzerland at 75 cents against Qatar but only 10 cents when Qatar faces Switzerland, revealing inconsistent or outdated pricing signals
- The 41% leading position versus 41% runner-up indicates extremely close competitive assessment with minimal statistical separation between top outcomes
- Market structure spans multiple contracts with varying liquidity, making the aggregated 41% dependent on which contract is considered most representative

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerland-vs-canada
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=switzerland-vs-canada

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.