# Switzerland’s June Referendum

> What will pass?: Civilian Service Act leads at 70%, runner-up 42% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerlands-june-referendum
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:25.526Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: What will pass?: Civilian Service Act at 70%
- Runner-up: What will pass?: No to ten million Switzerland at 42%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| What will pass?: Civilian Service Act | 70¢ | −3pp | $33 | polymarket | /markets/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass-civili-polymarket-0x64d46c7e4cf283ef84da138bc30accd319bf7bd856e8e26797dbe50d4e3a67eb |
| What will pass?: No to ten million Switzerland | 42¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/switzerlands-june-referendum-what-will-pass-no-to-polymarket-0x88e08e1db2095d39e18ef77068b8dc8074069ccac3feac7fba88482f4f822935 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | What will pass?: Civilian Service Act | What will pass?: No to ten million Switzerland |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 82 | 29 |
| 2026-05-02 | 72 | 42 |
| 2026-05-09 | 72 | 42 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · What will pass?: Civilian Service Act −9pp 73→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · What will pass?: Civilian Service Act −6pp 78→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · What will pass?: Civilian Service Act +6pp 64→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · What will pass?: Civilian Service Act +5pp 70→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · What will pass?: No to ten million Switzerland −4pp 42→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets estimate a 73% chance that Switzerland's Civilian Service Act will pass in a June referendum, based primarily on Polymarket contracts. This reflects trader expectations about how Swiss voters will decide on a significant policy question regarding military service alternatives. The probability is driven by assessments of public opinion trends, campaign momentum, and historical precedent for similar social referendums in Switzerland. The outcome will be determined on the actual referendum date in June 2026, when Swiss voters cast ballots. Key considerations include the composition of the voting bloc most affected by the proposal, regional voting patterns, and any major campaign developments that shift public sentiment in the final weeks before the vote.

### Key factors

- Polymarket's Civilian Service Act contract trades at 72¢ while the opposing 'No to ten million Switzerland' contract sits at 42¢, indicating traders assign the Act roughly 2:1 odds of passage over rejection
- The Civilian Service Act contract shows higher 24-hour volume ($343) than its competitor ($750 for the opposing measure), suggesting uneven trader conviction or activity concentration on specific outcomes
- Swiss referendums on military and service policy have historically displayed substantial regional and generational divides, making pre-referendum polling accuracy and late shifts material to final margins
- The June 2026 referendum date is the hard resolution point; no interim polling or campaign developments between now and then will update the contract price until actual ballots are cast
- Historical Swiss voter turnout and yes/no skew on social policy questions will partly determine whether the 73% market estimate proves calibrated or reflects mispricing of voter mobilization asymmetries

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/switzerlands-june-referendum
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=switzerlands-june-referendum

## License

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