# Tabi FDV above ___ one day after launch — $1B

> $500M leads at 29%, runner-up 10% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.438Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $500M at 29%
- Runner-up: $1B at 10%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0xf7fbeee415a4c341bbeb81e0fe8c2891a608f26c9f9a4e492e7fbb2e395a7008 |
| $1B | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0x1f0d3a2760b4705b056bf800aa852675e7b1f835742b22dbd8da4aab91afc809 |
| $2B | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-2b-polymarket-0xb4509c2f63d4a35dc28a849e56ea65a11cec739322c07934377997c21696e05d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $500M | $1B | $2B |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 9 | 7 |
| 2026-04-10 | 18 | 9 | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 26 | 10 | 8 |
| 2026-04-25 | 26 | — | 8 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 | 10 | 9 |
| 2026-05-07 | 30 | 10 | 8 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 10 | — |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · $500M −4pp 39→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $500M −3pp 33→30¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 34% chance that Tabi will have a fully diluted valuation above $1 billion one day after its launch. The probability reflects significant uncertainty about initial market appetite for this asset relative to comparable token launches. Key drivers include market sentiment toward new token projects, macroeconomic conditions affecting crypto valuations, and Tabi's specific feature set and marketing reach. The primary uncertainty will resolve immediately upon launch when exchange data, trading volume, and initial pricing become observable. Currently, related contracts suggest traders view $500M as more likely than $1B, while related projects show wide-ranging outcomes. The 34% level indicates traders see this threshold as possible but not probable based on current information.

### Key factors

- The $1B FDV threshold sits above the median of related token launch outcomes in the comparison set, where $500M (44¢) and $100M (89¢) contracts show higher implied probabilities
- Initial 24-hour trading volume and price discovery mechanism will directly determine whether liquidity and demand support a $1B valuation one day post-launch
- Macroeconomic conditions and current cryptocurrency market sentiment as of launch date will significantly influence speculative buying pressure and initial valuations
- Tabi's competitive positioning relative to existing similar tokens and its specific utility or feature differentiation affect perceived value among initial traders
- Launch timing, exchange availability, and listing strategy will determine the market infrastructure and participant base available to price the asset in the first 24 hours

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tabi-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.