# Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by...

> December 31 leads at 17%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taiwanese-premier-cho-jungtai-out
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.196Z
Category: general · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 17%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/taiwanese-premier-cho-jung-tai-out-by-december-31-polymarket-0x36fcfb6677c31da3b4d778113f9c73621aa1a393f7f91c595077a7a3e5813a08 |
| June 30 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/taiwanese-premier-cho-jung-tai-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x0a41fdad163a6627011670f3825b0a7ba6846898edd967bf99e35edaf8e01c39 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 38 | 13 |
| 2026-04-24 | 22 | 4 |
| 2026-04-25 | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 | 3 |
| 2026-05-06 | 17 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 17 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 16% probability that Taiwan's Premier Cho Jung-tai will leave office by a specified date. The low probability reflects that Cho currently holds a stable position within the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government under President Lai Ching-te. The main factors that could shift this probability are significant political crises, health issues, internal party conflicts, or major policy failures that force a resignation or removal. Taiwan's political calendar, including legislative developments and cross-strait tensions, would likely drive movement in this contract. The absence of immediate succession pressure or announced transitions explains the baseline low probability, though unexpected political shocks could rapidly change the assessment.

### Key factors

- Cho Jung-tai's current political standing and relationship with President Lai Ching-te, as measured by public statements and coalition stability
- Domestic political developments in Taiwan including DPP internal dynamics and potential legislative conflicts that could force ministerial changes
- Cross-strait developments with China that could trigger government restructuring or emergency transitions
- Cho's health status and any public indicators of his ability to continue in the role
- Comparison to similar Asian political figures' tenure stability and typical replacement timelines in Taiwan's government structure

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/taiwanese-premier-cho-jungtai-out
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=taiwanese-premier-cho-jungtai-out
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

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