# What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Session

> Closed. Last odds frozen 23 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/talaricomention
Updated: 2026-06-27T05:20:51.157Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Leader: Corrupt / Corruption at 87%
- Runner-up: Billionaire at 71%
- Outcomes: 12 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $32K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corrupt / Corruption | 87¢ | +14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-corr |
| Billionaire | 71¢ | +9pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-bill |
| Jesus / God | 66¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-jesu |
| Republican | 62¢ | −2pp | $826 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-repu |
| Healthcare | 51¢ | +7pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-heal |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | 46¢ | −20pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-affo |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 25¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-oil |
| Trump | 23¢ | −21pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-trum |
| Endorse / Endorsed / Endorsement | 9¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-endo |
| Iran / Iranian | 6¢ | −25pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-iran |
| Israel / Israeli | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-isra |
| ICE | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-james-talarico-say-during-2026-texas-dem-kalshi-kxtalaricomention-26jun26-ice |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Corrupt / Corruption | Billionaire | Jesus / God |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 75 | 69 | 65 |
| 2026-06-27 | 89 | 78 | 66 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-27 · Iran / Iranian −25pp 31→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Trump −21pp 56→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Afford / Affordable / Affordability −20pp 54→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Corrupt / Corruption +14pp 75→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-27 · Billionaire +9pp 69→78¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market predicts whether James Talarico, a Texas state representative, will mention a specific topic during his speech at the 2026 Texas Democratic Convention's Friday general session. The 87% probability on the leading outcome suggests traders believe certain statements are highly likely, while the distributed pricing across topics like Trump (23¢), Jesus/God (66¢), and Israel (5¢) reflects uncertainty about which subjects he'll actually address. The market will resolve on June 28, 2026, when the convention occurs and Talarico's remarks either do or do not match the contract specifications. Factors influencing the odds include Talarico's known policy positions and rhetoric patterns, the convention's political context, and whether specific issues become focal points during the event. Trading volume concentration in Trump-related contracts suggests market focus on his likely discussion of prominent political figures.

### Key factors

- Talarico's documented public statements and typical speaking patterns from previous Democratic events will inform whether certain topics are statistically likely to appear
- The specific wording and resolution criteria (exact phrases like 'endorse,' 'Trump,' or 'Iran') create binary outcomes that depend on precise speech content, not general themes
- Convention timing (Friday June 28) is fixed, making this a near-term resolution event with limited time for new information to shift probabilities
- Trading volume disparities across contracts suggest market participants have differing confidence levels in different outcomes based on available evidence about Talarico's priorities
- The leading contract's 87% probability reflects asymmetric trader conviction, not a consensus view, indicating significant minority positions betting on alternative outcomes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/talaricomention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=talaricomention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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