# Who will win the 2026 Tallahassee, Florida mayoral election

> Loranne Ausley leads at 37%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 20 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tallahasseemayor
Updated: 2026-07-13T02:20:48.973Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-18

## Headline

- Leader: Loranne Ausley at 37%
- Runner-up: Daryl Parks at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $65

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loranne Ausley | 37¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-tallahassee-florida-mayoral-kalshi-kxtallahasseemayor-26-laus |
| Daryl Parks | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-tallahassee-florida-mayoral-kalshi-kxtallahasseemayor-26-dpar |
| Jeremy Matlow | 20¢ | ±0 | $65 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-tallahassee-florida-mayoral-kalshi-kxtallahasseemayor-26-jmat |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Loranne Ausley | Daryl Parks | Jeremy Matlow |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | 3 | 17 | 7 |
| 2026-06-27 | 49 | 19 | 16 |
| 2026-06-28 | 44 | — | 23 |
| 2026-07-06 | 35 | 21 | 26 |
| 2026-07-07 | 34 | 22 | 26 |
| 2026-07-10 | 35 | 26 | — |

_16 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-09 · Daryl Parks +3pp 22→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 18% probability indicates a one-in-five chance that Daryl Parks wins the 2026 Tallahassee mayoral election. The relatively low odds suggest market participants view Parks as a secondary candidate compared to frontrunners. The current probability reflects limited information about candidate strength, endorsements, and fundraising at this early stage. Key drivers would include Parks' campaign infrastructure, name recognition among Tallahassee voters, and the broader field composition—additional candidates entering or exiting the race could shift his odds. The main uncertainty resolver will be the filing deadline and primary results if applicable, which typically occur months before the general election. Early polling data, endorsements from local institutions, and fundraising reports will provide clearer signals about Parks' viability as the election approaches.

### Key factors

- Daryl Parks' fundraising totals and donor base relative to other mayoral candidates
- Primary election results or plurality structure if multiple candidates advance from a primary phase
- Endorsements from major Tallahassee institutions, labor organizations, or current elected officials
- Head-to-head polling between Parks and leading opponents in the general election
- Voter registration and turnout patterns in Tallahassee precincts where Parks has political base or support

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tallahasseemayor
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tallahasseemayor
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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