# Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 1 contract — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:13.632Z
Category: politics
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $14K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? | 31¢ | −1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/tamas-sulyok-out-as-president-of-hungary-by-june-3-polymarket-0x2af78d63305bbeeab287701eba943a587357b9c63086603cb85b15d8405e12a7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 62 |
| 2026-05-14 | 66 |
| 2026-05-21 | 51 |
| 2026-05-28 | 35 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? −10pp 49→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? −4pp 51→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? −3pp 39→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction reflects a 73% probability that Tamas Sulyok will no longer serve as President of Hungary by June 30, 2026. Sulyok became president in March 2022 as a politically independent figure, but Hungarian presidential politics remains tied to broader power dynamics with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's government. The high probability likely reflects either reported health concerns, political tension, or recent developments suggesting early departure. Key uncertainties include whether Sulyok's stated intent to serve remains firm, whether parliament might initiate removal proceedings, or whether resignation might occur due to personal circumstances. The timeframe allows roughly seven weeks for events to unfold. Market participants appear to weight the possibility of presidential succession substantially, though Hungary's constitutional framework limits the presidency to largely ceremonial duties, making removal less straightforward than in systems with executive power.

### Key factors

- Sulyok's current health status and any recent public statements regarding his fitness to continue in office
- Parliamentary composition and whether any coalition has sufficient votes to initiate impeachment or removal procedures under Hungarian law
- Timeline for Hungary's next scheduled elections or government transitions that could trigger leadership changes
- Any formal statements from Sulyok's office or the government regarding his continued tenure through June 2026
- Volume and movement of trading activity on the contract, indicating whether new information has recently shifted market expectations

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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