# Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: ADMK

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-admk
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 16¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |
| JD Vance | 17¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |
| Gavin Newsom | 16¢ | +1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57 |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | +1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-kamala-harris-polymarket-0xb3298af85e00aafad937c119444a5f2800a55343b7482eb75581f6e454432501 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-tucker-carlson-polymarket-0xd94b47bdeba16ae948bfb147bda059f3543d6fca73291644dfff5268bba7a797 |
| Democrat | 64¢ | −2pp | $503 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-democrat-polymarket-0x66bbf6d55e0296278858b3147689f3df9259374f158f9f028b608baa322a639c |
| Republican | 37¢ | ±0 | $94 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 43 |
| 2026-06-05 | 29 |
| 2026-06-12 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 22% chance that the ADMK (All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) will win the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election. The current assessment reflects ADMK's status as the primary opposition to the ruling DMK coalition, though the party faces headwinds from incumbent advantage and recent electoral performance. Key drivers of this probability include ADMK's ground organization, alliance strategies, and voter consolidation efforts against the currently governing coalition. The election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout, caste-based voting patterns, and whether ADMK can effectively mobilize its traditional voter base across the state's districts. The resolution of this market will occur on the official election date when results are declared by the Tamil Nadu Electoral Commission.

### Key factors

- ADMK's performance in recent local body elections and bye-elections relative to DMK's
- Composition and stability of pre-poll alliances, particularly ADMK's tie-ups with smaller regional parties
- Regional faction strength within ADMK leadership and candidate selection outcomes
- Voter turnout and participation rates across urban, rural, and semi-urban constituencies
- DMK's incumbent government approval ratings and delivery on key campaign promises

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-admk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-admk
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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