# Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: DMK

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 16 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-dmk
Updated: 2026-05-04T18:05:14.774Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $950K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 20¢ | ±0 | $790K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |
| Chong Won-oh | 88¢ | ±0 | $25K | polymarket | /markets/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner-chong-won-oh-polymarket-0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0 |
| Roberto Sánchez Palomino | 34¢ | +1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/peru-presidential-election-winner-roberto-snchez-p-polymarket-0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951 |
| Gavin Newsom | 17¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57 |
| Chad Bianco | 3¢ | −1pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/california-governor-election-winner-chad-bianco-polymarket-0x1a5b898bbfa1e697c19afeef356d9c1a6ecb95d2493c31524d3c75f16f782c3e |
| Donald Trump | 3¢ | −1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0xce9a5fa30fe74e323b4a8f15afbb0b7a41a537aa880779ddf7dee22223b2f34a |
| Keiko Fujimori | 66¢ | +10pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/peru-presidential-election-winner-keiko-fujimori-polymarket-0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817599b0bf9fb5bd6b62b19210b0f527fec57cb75c7ed150a |
| Abelardo de la Espriella | 5¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/colombia-presidential-election-1st-round-winner-a-polymarket-0xb611b3a7173f69e412b55561ed265d849e36693c248ff620d0e981c5b3f2e325 |
| Tom Steyer | 42¢ | −2pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/california-governor-election-winner-tom-steyer-polymarket-0x8d62f20324e9e7f1a3c663ab6aac9a2f6e7adb96c6a69ac2cea7e08a71a7f2ef |
| Oh Se-hoon | 12¢ | −1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner-oh-se-hoon-polymarket-0xc587bda904f031a973ad3cb57128ca011bfab0f45e6cb3734ed2227c4d4be419 |
| Republican | 34¢ | +2pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |
| Katie Porter | 3¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/california-governor-election-winner-katie-porter-polymarket-0x11375fe1cf6665bbdee0cba5c2d48be1dedafab87841bd2eb8bc778c0402f457 |
| Tucker Carlson | 4¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-tucker-carlson-polymarket-0xd94b47bdeba16ae948bfb147bda059f3543d6fca73291644dfff5268bba7a797 |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-kamala-harris-polymarket-0xb3298af85e00aafad937c119444a5f2800a55343b7482eb75581f6e454432501 |
| Marco Rubio | 10¢ | −7pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |
| Democrat | 68¢ | −2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-democrat-polymarket-0x66bbf6d55e0296278858b3147689f3df9259374f158f9f028b608baa322a639c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 21 |
| 2026-04-20 | 27 |
| 2026-04-27 | 30 |
| 2026-05-03 | 33 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Tucker Carlson +23pp 3→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Tucker Carlson −23pp 26→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Kamala Harris +15pp 5→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Kamala Harris −14pp 20→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · JD Vance +13pp 19→32¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-dmk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-dmk
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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