# Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly Election Winner: TVK

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-tvk
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 7 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $49K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 16¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-marco-rubio-polymarket-0x2053d8515f1b8cbeea4ccdb56e60e89c2617e43a8660d95166b8e71d27865277 |
| JD Vance | 17¢ | +1pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-jd-vance-polymarket-0x7ad403c3508f8e3912940fd1a913f227591145ca0614074208e0b962d5fcc422 |
| Gavin Newsom | 16¢ | +1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-gavin-newsom-polymarket-0x4567b275e6b667a6217f5cb4f06a797d3a1eaf1d0281fb5bc8c75e2046ae7e57 |
| Kamala Harris | 5¢ | +1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-kamala-harris-polymarket-0xb3298af85e00aafad937c119444a5f2800a55343b7482eb75581f6e454432501 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-tucker-carlson-polymarket-0xd94b47bdeba16ae948bfb147bda059f3543d6fca73291644dfff5268bba7a797 |
| Democrat | 64¢ | −2pp | $503 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-democrat-polymarket-0x66bbf6d55e0296278858b3147689f3df9259374f158f9f028b608baa322a639c |
| Republican | 37¢ | ±0 | $94 | polymarket | /markets/maine-senate-election-winner-republican-polymarket-0x2c00cb09722a0f0501c5e49131b898ed57bb5c075db4dc2bcbc14908f45b8c48 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 43 |
| 2026-06-05 | 29 |
| 2026-06-12 | 16 |
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The 32% probability reflects market expectations that Tamil Nadu's Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)-led alliance will retain power in the state's next legislative assembly elections, with the Vijay-led TVK party capturing a meaningful but minority share of seats. This level suggests traders view TVK as a credible challenger with organizational capacity and regional appeal, but not the frontrunner. The primary drivers are TVK's organizational maturity, its performance in local contests, and whether the DMK alliance sustains its current coalition structure. The 2026 Tamil Nadu legislative elections—scheduled for April 2026 based on state assembly terms—represent the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Market pricing could shift significantly based on internal alliance negotiations, campaign momentum indicators, or unexpected defections among either established or emerging parties in the state.

### Key factors

- TVK's vote share and seat projections in pre-election opinion polls published 2-3 months before voting
- Stability and public perception of the incumbent DMK-led alliance's governance record on economic and welfare metrics
- Electoral alliances formed by TVK with other regional parties, which would directly impact seat arithmetic
- Results from state-level by-elections or local body elections occurring before the assembly vote, signaling voter sentiment shifts
- Turnout patterns and demographic voting behavior in key districts where TVK has concentrated organizational presence

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-tvk
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tamil-nadu-legislative-assembly-election-winner-tvk
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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